MEXICAN PETROLEUM

PEMEX filed its 6-K for the six months ended June 30, 2026, reporting total revenues of Ps.876.1 billion (up 11.3% YoY), operating income of Ps.125.0 billion, but a net loss of Ps.28.0 billion versus a Ps.16.2 billion profit in H1 2025. The loss was driven by a swing in derivative instruments (Ps.12.3 billion cost vs. Ps.20.9 billion income YoY) and sharply lower foreign exchange gains (Ps.40.3 billion vs. Ps.119.6 billion). Total equity deficit stood at Ps.1.85 trillion, negative working capital was Ps.355.3 billion, and the company explicitly states "significant doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern." The Mexican Government injected Ps.100.4 billion in equity contributions during the period.

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A state-owned oil giant with Ps.1.85 trillion in negative equity and an explicit going concern warning is a sovereign-credit event in waiting for Mexico.

PEMEX remains the world's most indebted state oil company. The going concern warning, despite US$81.08/bbl average crude export prices, underscores structural insolvency that distinguishes PEMEX from peers like Petrobras or Saudi Aramco.

Going concern risk is explicit: cash flow from operations is insufficient to fund operations and capex; short-term debt of Ps.213.1 billion must be refinanced; crude oil price declines below budgeted levels would further impair results. Government support is not guaranteed.