$NGG · NATIONAL GRID PLC
National Grid issued a pre-close update for the six months ended 30 September 2026 ahead of its 5 November half-year results. The company now expects FY27 underlying EPS to be "slightly above" its prior 13-15% growth guidance, driven by ~£130 million of additional H1 performance in National Grid Ventures & Other — reflecting one-off fair value gains from two NG Partners capital market transactions and stronger interconnector results. Regulated businesses continue to perform in line with expectations, with the usual H2 EPS weighting maintained.
- FY27 underlying EPS now expected 'slightly above' prior 13-15% growth guidance.
- National Grid Ventures & Other delivered ~£130M of additional H1 performance vs. expectations.
- Two successful capital market transactions within NG Partners drove significant one-off fair value gains.
- H1 Group operating profit profile broadly consistent with prior year; EPS still weighted to H2.
- Half-year net debt expected broadly in line with full-year guidance after Joulent investment impact.
Extended-hours trading shows NGG at $76.04, down 0.11% from the regular close — a muted reaction to the raised guidance, likely reflecting the one-off nature of the gains driving the beat. Full market reaction awaits the regular session.
A guidance raise from a $76B+ regulated utility is rare, but the beat is entirely from non-recurring fair value gains — core regulated operations are merely in line.
UK and US regulated utilities typically show H2-weighted earnings; National Grid's raised guidance contrasts with peers facing rate-case uncertainty, though the beat is driven by unregulated Ventures activities rather than core operations.
The ~£130M H1 outperformance stems from one-off fair value gains on capital market transactions — inherently non-recurring and subject to reversal if market conditions shift. Regulated business performance remains merely 'in line.'
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