$MOH · MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.
Molina Healthcare reported Q3 2026 results with GAAP EPS of $0.73 and adjusted EPS of $0.89, down 52% and 53% YoY respectively. Premium revenue declined 4% YoY to $10.5B on membership losses across Medicaid and Marketplace. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of approximately $42B in premium revenue and adjusted EPS of at least $5.25, which includes a $1.50/share loss from the new Florida Medicaid contract and a $1.00/share loss from the MAPD product exit.
- GAAP net income fell 52% YoY to $38M ($0.73/share) from $79M ($1.51/share) in Q3 2025.
- Adjusted net income dropped 53% YoY to $46M ($0.89/share) from $97M ($1.84/share).
- Consolidated MCR deteriorated to 92.9% from 92.6% YoY; Medicaid MCR worsened to 93.0% from 92.0%.
- Total membership declined to 4.86M from 5.63M YoY, with Marketplace losing 446K members (62% drop).
- FY2026 guidance includes a $1.50/share loss from new Florida Medicaid contract and $1.00/share loss from MAPD exit.
Extended-hours trading shows MOH at $204.50, down 4.79% from the regular close of $214.79. The steep earnings decline and MCR deterioration are driving the selloff despite reaffirmed guidance.
A 52% YoY earnings collapse at a major Medicaid managed care player signals that elevated medical cost trends are not yet abating despite management's "plateauing" narrative.
Managed care peers face similar Medicaid margin pressure from elevated utilization post-redeterminations. Molina's 4% premium revenue decline and membership erosion mirror sector-wide Medicaid enrollment normalization.
Medicaid MCR rose 100 bps YoY to 93.0%, reflecting elevated medical cost trends. FY2026 guidance embeds $2.50/share in known losses from Florida Medicaid implementation and MAPD exit, with execution risk on both.
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