$STLD · STEEL DYNAMICS INC
Steel Dynamics issued Q3 2026 EPS guidance of $5.34–$5.38, up sharply from $3.69 in Q2 2026 and $2.74 in Q3 2025. The company cited metal margin expansion, record steel shipments, and strong order activity across non-residential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial end markets. Steel fabrication backlog is nearly 50% above prior-year levels and extends through Q1 2027.
- Q3 2026 EPS guidance of $5.34–$5.38 compares to $3.69 in Q2 2026 and $2.74 in Q3 2025.
- Steel operations profitability expected to rise sharply on metal margin expansion and record shipments.
- Steel fabrication backlog is nearly 50% higher than prior-year Q3 levels, extending through Q1 2027.
- Aluminum operations expected to improve meaningfully with first CASH line shipping commercial material in Q4.
- Company repurchased $261 million of common stock in Q3 2026, just under 1% of shares outstanding.
Stock down 3.08% in regular trading to $237.80 despite bullish guidance — the 45% sequential EPS jump was likely priced in or overshadowed by broader steel-sector concerns. The $261M buyback and aluminum ramp provide a floor, but the metals recycling segment's expected sequential decline may be weighing on sentiment.
A 45% sequential EPS jump with record shipments and a 50% higher fabrication backlog signals exceptional operating leverage in the current steel cycle.
The guidance reflects strong non-residential construction and infrastructure demand tailwinds that benefit the broader domestic steel sector. STLD's aluminum flat-rolled ramp positions it uniquely among steel peers to capture beverage-can and automotive aluminum markets.
Metals recycling earnings expected to decline sequentially due to lower metal spreads and modestly lower shipments. Steel fabrication faces metal spread compression as higher steel input costs offset pricing gains.
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