97% of MARA's Q3 revenue came from bitcoin mining, per Seeking Alpha.
97% of MARA's Q3 revenue came from bitcoin mining, per Seeking Alpha. That tells me the stock still trades as a BTC proxy, and the AI story has to show up in revenue before I treat it as anything else.
- Seeking Alpha contributor Ryan Canady moved $MARA from Buy to Hold on November 11, arguing the AI transformation hasn't materialized. That is one contributor's view, but the revenue mix backs his core point.
- FERC approved the $1.5 billion Long Ridge deal on November 4, and MARA announced the approval on November 5. MARA expects it to close in the coming weeks, so it is still a pending deal that has not yet contributed AI/HPC revenue.
- There is real progress. Per MARA's Q3 shareholder letter, Exaion signed a four-year, $79 million GPU-as-a-service contract with a first U.S. customer. Management is still targeting two data-center lease signings by year-end and has warned the timing could slip into 2027.
- Shares closed up 10.5% at $7.34 on November 10, a move reporting linked to the $500 million buyback authorization and the repayment of $750 million in bitcoin-backed debt. On November 11 they traded at $7.64 premarket, up 4.1% from that close.
Here is what would change my mind: signed leases plus HPC hosting revenue showing up in the next print. Until then I read MARA as leveraged BTC, and since I'm bullish on BTC that isn't a bad thing. I could be wrong on the timing.
Source:
Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4966343-mara-holdings-i-saw-an-ai-transformation-that-didnt-manifest-rating-downgrade
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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