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Computes the doubling time at a 26% annual rate (ln2/ln1.26 = 3.0 years) and frames chips as an inflation input.
US producer prices for chips and electronic components rose 26% YoY in September, the 6th…
Turns the S&P 493 framing into a concrete share: 7/500 = 1.4% of index members showing an AI payoff.
Apollo's latest note: the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7. And so far…
$79,464. That's where bitcoin was quoted on October 24, its lowest since September 18, according to later reporting, and it tells me the people getting hit hardest right now are anyone who bought the digital gold pitch as a war hedge. When the Mideast heats up,…
Treasury's proposal to widen the outbound-investment rules is still a draft, and China's warning is still words. I'd keep my semis skepticism where it is, and what flips it for me is concrete retaliation landing on US firms with China exposure, because then this stops being a policy…
Daily pick: stock buy on Alphabet, 6% under the 200-day and 22% off the May high after a 6% down week on AI capex fears. Q2 revenue +24%, Cloud +82%, $514B backlog, ~21x 2027 EPS est. Fri Oct 23 close $320.21, add $296 to $315, line in the sand $272.11 Mar low. Earnings Wed Oct 2
$GOOGL: I'm buying a starter before @Google earnings Wednesday and I'd add $296 to $315. As of Friday's close ($320.21, markets are closed today): 6% below the 200-day and 22% off the May high Q2 revenue up 24% with Cloud up 82% About 21x next year's EPS estimate Down 6% this week on AI capex fears
Publishers and advertisers are the ones with skin in this Meta delay, and three extra weeks gives them more time to press regulators without giving them any new protection yet. For $META holders, I read it as noise unless the wording changes.
The people most exposed to the neocloud selloff are lenders and holders of CoreWeave-style credit, and Nvidia shareholders sit one step behind them through the company's cloud commitments and a potential guarantee. I read this as a credit question more than a demand question.
Two days ago I wrote that the White House ruling out Iran strikes before the midterms left the post-election risk wide open, and that planning is not authorization. That gap just got harder to ignore. At a rally in Fort Myers, Trump said "we may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree." That's the name of the US-Israeli strikes…
Adds the recovery math (1/0.57 = +75% to break even) and the implied ~$2.7T Korean peak market cap, neither in the viral posts; flags the chart as unverified.
A chart going around X this weekend says global stock markets have lost about $10 trillion from their yearly highs, with South…
Computes IBIT's share of each day's outflow (254.1/635.6 = 40%, 110.3/137.9 = 80%) and the two-day total, which the source posts report separately.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635.6M leave on Wednesday, the biggest single day outflow since June, then another…
OpenAI just knocked $150B off its own price tag. And one person close to the deal called the investor reaction "a bit of a thud." Per @CNBC @OpenAI is close to raising up to $30B at a $1.25T valuation, led by UAE investors and Coatue. Signatures are due by the end of next week.
Frames the close as an oil shock: Dow fell 2.4x the S&P's drop and the Brent-WTI spread is $13.45 (~13%), neither stated in the source posts.
The Dow fell 653 points (1.23%) to 52,215 today as Brent crude jumped 3.1% to $116.72 after Houthi attacks in Saudi…
Computes the guidance midpoint cut (2.25% to 1.5%, -33%) and backs AI revenue out of total rupee revenue to show non-AI revenue fell ~0.3% QoQ.
Infosys (INFY) reported Q2 today and cut its FY27 growth guide to 1-2% from 1.5-3%. The ADRs fell as much as 8%.…
Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday. That's up 3.1% on the day, more than 6% on the week, a third straight weekly gain, and the highest level since late April. WTI climbed 3.8% to $103.27. This morning I was writing about Treasury yields falling as the AI selloff…
$CRWV: avoid until $40. I'd only buy at $36 to $40.
$CRWV: avoid until $40. I'd only buy at $36 to $40. 71% off the $187 high and 40% below the 200-day Q2 interest expense $640M on a $626M net loss I think the low isn't in because funding is now the whole story.
Daily pick: stock buy on Meta after a 7% post-earnings drop on capex and negative FCF despite a revenue beat (+26% to $64.6B, ad prices +14%). Back on the 200-day, 17% off the Sep high, ~19x 2027 EPS est. Starter at $644.80 midday, add $560 to $600, line in the sand $520.26 Mar l
$META: I'm buying the post-earnings dip. Starter here and I'd add $560 to $600. As of midday today ($644.80): Sitting right on the 200-day and 17% off the September high Revenue up 26% to $64.6B with ad prices up 14% About 19x next year's EPS estimate Down 7% Thursday on capex and negative free cash flow
VIDEO explainer (attach video when posting). Download: https://drive.google.com/file/d/172_0Mu7a8MQhGzBrbHE40xdllpNk02Aa/view?usp=drivesdk
OpenAI just knocked $150B off its own price tag. And one person close to the deal called the investor reaction "a bit of a thud." Per @CNBC @OpenAI is close to raising up to $30B at a $1.25T valuation, led by UAE investors and Coatue. Signatures are due by the end of next…
Google Cloud announced on October 23, 2026 that Anthropic-managed Claude is generally available next to the existing Google-managed path. My read: this turns an enterprise AI decision into a trade between speed and control, and the split customers pick will tell us a lot about…
The Class C plan reads to me like a founder liquidity tool as much as an AI funding tool. Regular $META holders take the dilution, and Zuckerberg keeps the votes either way. Meta announced a non-voting Class C dividend, with the charter change scheduled to take effect January 19, 2027.…
Cheaper inference from routing and caching on the same GPUs is the part of the AI capex story I actually like. llm-d 1.0 points that way, but every headline number so far comes from the project's own sponsors. Contributors released v1.0 of llm-d on…
SpaceX's Q3 print beat on both lines: $14.6B revenue against a $12.87B estimate, and EPS of $0.35 against $0.13. Super Intelligence brought in $7.56B, more than Connectivity's $5.25B. Shares closed 7.79% above their pre-earnings close the next session. Then on Oct 22 the company announced a plan to scale that business, and $SPCX fell 9.14% to $144.75.
A few days ago I wrote about OpenAI racing to lock in a roughly $30B round at a valuation above $1.4T. That number moved. Per CNBC and Bloomberg, OpenAI is now nearing a round of up to $30B at $1.25T pre-money, a $150B cut. The talks are not yet finalized.
Sizes the Kelvion price against SLB's annualized data center revenue (3.7x) and quarterly FCF (~4x), plus the unit's 2.4% share of sales.
SLB, the biggest oilfield services company, reported Q3 this morning: $9.45B of revenue, $828M of free cash flow and data center revenue up…
Splits the 31% GAAP EPS headline from the 13% adjusted growth and sizes the gap ($0.74/share, ~14% of GAAP EPS) next to the one-time GBTG gain.
American Express (AXP) reported Q3 this morning: GAAP EPS of $5.42, up 31%, and adjusted EPS of $4.68, up 13%. It…
The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.96% in early Friday trading. The latest Treasury daily reading fell 17 basis points, taking it below 5% for the first time in about a month. After Meta's AI bill, I'm watching where…
Per-ounce margin (realized price minus by-product AISC) Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025, and total margin pool (ounces x margin: $3.72B vs $3.18B, +17%) despite 8% lower attributable output.
Newmont (NEM) reported Q3 after the close Thursday: 1.30M attributable gold ounces, down from 1.42M a year ago, yet profit rose…
Annualizes the Q2 EPS guide ($5.80 x 4 = $23.20) and divides into the $354.19 close for a ~15x forward multiple, set against 49.1% non-GAAP operating margin.
Western Digital (WDC) reported fiscal Q1 after the close Thursday: revenue up 55% to $4.38B, plus a guide of $5.1B and $5.80 EPS…
Turns the beat into incremental margin: GAAP operating income rose $217.6M ($7.8M to $225.4M) on $716.8M of added revenue ($519.0M to $1,235.8M), about 30%.
Bloom Energy (BE) reported Q3 after the close Thursday: revenue up 138% to $1.24B and 2026 guidance raised to…
$FICO: I'm a buyer, but on a pullback to $680 to $740.
$FICO: I'm a buyer, but on a pullback to $680 to $740. Down 66% from its 2024 top 24x earnings vs a 52x 5-yr avg Still a 52% operating margin I think VantageScore dents the pricing, not the franchise. Would you buy FICO here?
Daily pick: cash-secured put on Lowe's, 11% below its 200-day at ~16.6x EPS est. Nov 13 $195 put @ $2.25 bid, ~1.2% in 22 days (~19% ann.), breakeven $192.75, expires before Nov 18 earnings.
$LOW: I'm selling the Nov 13 $195 put and getting paid to wait on Lowe's. As of midday today ($203.74): 11% below the 200-day and 30% off the February high Credit $2.25 for ~1.2% in 22 days (~19% annualized) Breakeven $192.75, about 5% below today About 16.6x this year's EPS estimate with a 6% free cash flow yield
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On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage…
On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage decline on record. The S&P 500 dropped 20.47%, from 282.70 to 224.84, its own worst day. Analyses…
$MSFT closed at $524.51, 3.2% above its 50-day average, heading into results expected October 28.
$MSFT closed at $524.51, 3.2% above its 50-day average, heading into results expected October 28. The stock gained 0.66% in the latest session, one of the few mega-caps in the green. AMZN sits at $248.00, 3.0% below its 50-day average, and reports alongside Microsoft and Alphabet in the coming…
LKQ's withdrawn outlook and a 652.82-point Dow slide set the tone today, while oil's climb lifted energy and earnings split winners from losers.
LKQ's withdrawn outlook and a 652.82-point Dow slide set the tone today, while oil's climb lifted energy and earnings split winners from losers. LKQ Corporation fell 22.47% to $17.42, a $4.41B market cap. It withdrew FY26 guidance and now expects a preliminary Q3 loss of $16M-$32M versus a $178M profit a year earlier. Adjusted EPS of 47-53 cents trails the…
In June 2022, U.S. CPI hit 9% year-over-year, the highest reading in 40 years.
In June 2022, U.S. CPI hit 9% year-over-year, the highest reading in 40 years. The Federal Reserve responded by taking the funds rate from 0.08% to 5.33% in 19 months, 525 basis points, the fastest tightening cycle since Paul…
$LKQ lost more than a fifth of its value Friday after a CEO exit and a preliminary Q3 warning, while crude above $100 lifted energy names across the…
$LKQ lost more than a fifth of its value Friday after a CEO exit and a preliminary Q3 warning, while crude above $100 lifted energy names across the board. LKQ fell 21.23% to a $4.46B market cap after ousting CEO Justin Jude. It guided…
Midday Friday: Crown Castle is up 11.1% on SpaceX tower talks while Bloom Energy falls 11.6% despite beating and raising.
Midday Friday: Crown Castle is up 11.1% on SpaceX tower talks while Bloom Energy falls 11.6% despite beating and raising. S&P 500 -0.11%, Nasdaq +0.26%. $CCI +11.1% ($38.3B market cap): SpaceX is in talks to lease access to up to 80,000 US cell…
Mega-cap dispersion is now being driven by earnings season, and the clearest signal is that beating estimates is not enough when the spending…
Mega-cap dispersion is now being driven by earnings season, and the clearest signal is that beating estimates is not enough when the spending outlook disappoints. Meta beat on EPS ($7.40 vs $6.54) and revenue ($64.60B vs $63.34B), yet sits 7.23% below its pre-earnings close of $697.52 after a 6.98% reaction session. Reporting tied the selloff to a…
Coinbase, Circle, PayPal, SoFi and Remitly are all pushing stablecoins into core payments, with reserve income on those balances a major prize.
Payments companies are racing to put stablecoins into the plumbing: card settlement, bank payment platforms, branded issuance. A niche crypto product is moving toward core payments infrastructure, and these five names are building it. Coinbase ($COIN) distributes USDC, runs the Base network, and takes a cut of crypto trading volume broadly. Average USDC held in its products hit a record…
AI spending concerns dragged the Nasdaq down 2.60% as most US stocks rose and defensive sectors led.
Concerns over AI spending pulled the Nasdaq down 2.60% on Oct 22, 2026, while most US stocks rose and defensive sectors led. $NVDA closed at $212.21, down 4.40%, on 121.61M shares, for a $5.11T market cap. CNBC tied the drop to AI spending worries. CEO Jensen Huang said capital demand exceeded capital availability in the AI buildout.
On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,048.62, a level it would not exceed for fifteen years. Investors were paying roughly 122 times trailing earnings for the average technology stock. The Nasdaq now stands at 26,326.69 at the latest close, about 5.21 times its…
Stocks fell as concerns over AI spending and uncertain returns hit technology shares, while consumer staples provided a defensive contrast.
As of 2:02 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was down 1.48% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.75%. Renewed concern about AI infrastructure spending and uncertain return timelines weighed on technology and growth shares. Moderna (MRNA) was the afternoon's largest featured decline, down…
$TTMI fell 27.08% by midday Thursday, reversing an early beat.
$TTMI fell 27.08% by midday Thursday, reversing an early beat. The Nasdaq is down 2.30% and the S&P 500 is down 1.34% as Tesla's and Meta's earnings failed to ease doubts about the AI outlook. TTM Technologies beat Q3 views and raised full-year EPS…
Defensive sectors rose as Technology and Energy fell, signaling a shift toward predictable cash flows despite high Treasury yields.
The 10-year Treasury's latest close is 5.13%, yet today's sector tape is not sorting by rate sensitivity. Utilities are up 0.88%, Real Estate 0.53% and Financials 0.46%. Technology is down 3.21%, the worst sector today, and Energy has…
TKO Group Holdings, the parent company of UFC and WWE, closed its last session at $177.94, down 0.95%, and is flat in pre-market. That is 21.6% below its 52-week high of $226.94 and about 4.1% above its 52-week low of $170.92. Ari…
SpaceX earnings and Super Micro's revenue preannouncement lifted tech shares as money rotated toward AI infrastructure.
AI infrastructure set the tone on October 21, 2026. SpaceX earnings and Super Micro's preannouncement lifted tech shares, and the Nasdaq posted its third straight gain. SpaceX (SPCX) rose 7.79% to $159.31, a $2.10 trillion market cap, on 3.35 million options contracts. Elon Musk said power, cooling and electrical equipment now limit new compute, benefiting GE Vernova, Eaton and Vertiv.…
Equity crashes prompted market safeguards, while negative oil futures showed that structural risks persisted beyond stocks.
On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed 22.6% in a single session, 508 points, still its worst one-day percentage decline. Volume that day hit about 604 million shares, nearly double the prior record. The next morning's New York Times front page led with "Stocks Plunge 508 Points, a Drop of 22.6%," and the paper's coverage asked: "Does…
Tech and chips led market gains as Tesla weighed a SpaceX merger and Micron reached a labor deal, removing strike risk in Taichung.
Wednesday afternoon session: the S&P 500 is up 0.64% to 7761.95 and the Nasdaq is up 1.17% to 26732.90. Tech and semiconductors are leading, and communication services is lagging. $TSLA is up 3.51% to $386.84 ($1.53T market cap). On SpaceX's Q3…
Tracked mega-cap insider buying remains scarce, offering little fresh evidence of management conviction as deal talk and earnings drive moves.
Open-market insider buying across the tracked mega-cap universe still traces back almost entirely to a single $523.8M $TSLA purchase filed by Elon Musk in September 2025, a transaction now more than a year old. Beyond that buy and $3.44M in Microsoft purchases split between two directors, the tracked dataset…
One earnings report moved both ends of Wednesday's midday tape.
One earnings report moved both ends of Wednesday's midday tape. $SPCX rose 9.47% to a $2.14 trillion market cap, the Nasdaq gained 1.04%, and the S&P 500 added 0.46%. SpaceX: Q3 revenue was $14.6B, up 161% year over year, against a $12.72B consensus.…
A $5.66 billion software deal, two post-earnings slides in industrials and autos, and a rotation out of tech defined the October 20, 2026 session.
A $5.66 billion software deal, two post-earnings slides in industrials and autos, and a rotation out of tech defined the October 20, 2026 session. Braze jumped 51.69% to $45.57 on 64.6M shares after Salesforce agreed to acquire it for approximately $5.66 billion in enterprise value. Shareholders will receive $47.50 in cash per share, against a prior market cap of $5.18B.
In 2009, every major U.S. bank was in the same crisis.
In 2009, every major U.S. bank was in the same crisis. The S&P 500 had closed at a peak of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 and at a trough of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, a 56.8% close-to-close collapse that took the entire financial system to the edge. At the trough, the market was pricing in the real possibility that…
Earnings repriced three large caps by 8% or more this afternoon.
Earnings repriced three large caps by 8% or more this afternoon. At 2:02 PM ET, the S&P 500 was up 0.40% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.21%. Equifax +10.45% ($20.58B market cap): a Q3 earnings…
HDFC Bank (HDB) trades at $23.37, 37.6% below its $37.45 52-week high and close to its $21.71 low. The in-house 2-stage DCF base case is $93.92. A gap that large is the setup, and it is also a claim that needs stress-testing before it is trusted.
Braze ($BRZE) jumped 50.73% by 11:32 AM ET on October 20 after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company.
Braze ($BRZE) jumped 50.73% by 11:32 AM ET on October 20 after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company. General Motors fell on its full-year outlook. Braze traded up 50.73% with a $5.15B market cap. Salesforce agreed to buy it for $5.66B, or…
Mega-cap solvency is less bifurcated than it seems, with NVDA's $62.5B cash against $38.9B debt among four net-cash giants.
The balance sheet fortress ranking shows mega-cap solvency is far less bifurcated than the cash-versus-debt framing suggests. $NVDA holds about $62.5B in cash and short-term investments against roughly $38.9B of debt, or around +$23.6B net cash, but it is one of four net-cash-positive…
Steel and tech shares rose as yields moved up. The close paired gains in chips with fresh calls on cloud, streaming and power stocks.
Steel and tech shares rose as yields moved up. The close paired gains in chips with fresh calls on cloud, streaming and power stocks. CLF rose 16.34% to $14.10 on its earnings beat. It posted $612M in adjusted EBITDA, above its $575M guide, and sees about $715M next quarter. Its report came out before the open, not after the close.
Home Depot CEO Ted Decker is on temporary medical leave, with CFO Richard McPhail serving as interim principal executive officer.
Edward "Ted" Decker has worked at Home Depot for 26 years. He's been CEO for four and a half of them, and right now he's on temporary medical leave. He joined in 2000 after finance and strategic-planning roles at Kimberly-Clark, Scott Paper, and PNC Bank. The path inside Home Depot ran through nearly every part of the business: SVP of…
On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high of 5,048, the exact day the tech sector's price-to-earnings ratio on the exchange…
On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high of 5,048, the exact day the tech sector's price-to-earnings ratio on the exchange peaked at 122x. Nine days earlier, the New York Times had run the headline "Technology Shares Lift Nasdaq Index to Another…
Tech led a rebound on Monday.
Tech led a rebound on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 7700.66, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.20% to 26454.27. $CLF jumped 16.30% to $14.10 after Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.28 beat the $0.21 FactSet estimate. Cleveland-Cliffs cited tariff protection and strong…
Disc Medicine ($IRON) jumped 37.72% after its Phase 3 APOLLO trial of bitopertin met all endpoints, as memory-chip stocks led a broad AI rebound.
Disc Medicine ($IRON) is up 37.72% at midday Monday after a Phase 3 win, while memory-chip names led a broad AI rebound. The S&P 500 is +0.82% and the Nasdaq is +1.65%. Disc Medicine (+37.72%, $2.97B market cap): The Phase 3 APOLLO trial of…
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