Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday.

Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday. That's up 3.1% on the day, more than 6% on the week, a third straight weekly gain, and the highest level since late April. WTI climbed 3.8% to $103.27.

This morning I was writing about Treasury yields falling as the AI selloff pushed money into havens. By the afternoon, oil had flipped that. The 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 4.99%, reversing Thursday's rally. The S&P 500 fell about 0.4% and the Dow fell about 1.1%.

The driver was a rough week in the Gulf. Houthi attacks hit Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu and an oil field, and a strike on Dammam's King Fahd airport was deadly. There was also a reported UAE oil spill. Saudi Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday, its first evacuation since the US-Iran war began. Iran's army chief says Tehran is fully prepared for "asymmetric warfare."

The New York Times reports that the US and Israel have plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterms. Trump says he won't attack before then and expects prices to fall afterward. My read is that the market just got handed a calendar for the next leg of risk. With the Fed deciding next week and the 10-year sitting at 4.99%, I'm curious how they plan to talk about inflation while oil is doing this.

Sources:
CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/oil-price-brent-wti-iran-war-saudi-arabia.html
Bloomberg via Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/brent_tops_116_as_middle_east_risks_grow-23-oct-2026-184925-article/
Bloomberg via Swissinfo: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/stocks-fall-as-oil-rally-keeps-a-lid-on-treasuries:-markets-wrap/92260391

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.