$META daily pick: buy the post-earnings dip, add $560 to $600

$META: I'm buying the post-earnings dip. Starter here and I'd add $560 to $600.

As of midday today ($644.80):
Sitting right on the 200-day and 17% off the September high
Revenue up 26% to $64.6B with ad prices up 14%
About 19x next year's EPS estimate
Down 7% Thursday on capex and negative free cash flow

I think the spending fear is mostly priced in because revenue is still growing over 25% and the $73B to $76B Q4 guide says it isn't slowing much.

Would you buy Meta at the 200-day or wait for the 2027 capex number?

Not financial advice

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Why now? Meta beat on revenue ($64.6B vs about $63.3B expected) and still fell 7% because free cash flow went negative. Capex hit $34.9B in the quarter and they guided $135B to $145B for 2026. I'd rather buy a beat when the market is scared of the bill.

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Bear case: they haven't bought back any stock in the first nine months of 2026 and RBC thinks they may issue equity next year. The new non-voting Class C shares give them an easy way to do it. If the AI spend doesn't pay off this can stay cheap for a while.

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The Class C part: one new non-voting share for every A and B share, which Meta says should act like a 2-for-1 split. The charter change takes effect Jan 19, 2027. Next earnings are Jan 27 and the 2027 capex guide is the number I care about.

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What I'd watch: a move back over the $697.52 pre-earnings close tells me the sellers are done. A weekly close under the $520.26 March low means I'm wrong and I'd step aside. Street target is about $834 with 56 Buys and 11 Holds for what it's worth.

Sources: FMP: $META quote, estimates, earnings, cash flow and price history · Robinhood: $META live quote (Oct 23, 12:19pm ET) · Motley Fool: Meta Q3 (capex $34.9B, FCF -$2.1B, ad price +14%, Q4 guide, Class C), Oct 23 · Benzinga: analyst views, 2026 capex guide $135B to $145B, RBC equity issuance view, Oct 23 · Reuters: why Meta is creating non-voting Class C shares, Oct 23 · Nasdaq hits worst day since June as Meta shares drop, Oct 22

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.