$FICO stock call: Buy the dip, accumulate $680 to $740

$FICO: I'm a buyer, but on a pullback to $680 to $740.

Down 66% from its 2024 top
24x earnings vs a 52x 5-yr avg
Still a 52% operating margin

I think VantageScore dents the pricing, not the franchise.

Would you buy FICO here?

Not financial advice

---

Bear case: it fell 26.5% on Sep 29 after the FHFA said Fannie and Freddie will use one pricing grid for FICO and VantageScore. Rocket made VantageScore its preferred score and TransUnion holds it at $0.99 through 2028. Debt is $5.6B vs $0.25B cash.

---

Chart + wave read: I read the drop from the $2,382 top as an A-B-C. A hit $1,311 in Aug 2025, B bounced to $1,880 and C hit $592 on Sep 30. That held the Jan 2023 floor near $586, close to the 78.6% retrace of the 2020-24 run ($676). The 38% bounce looks like wave 1.

---

The business: its scores are used by virtually all U.S. lenders. Fiscal Q3 revenue rose 26% to $674M and scores revenue rose 41%. The margin is 52% and it's cutting about 15% of jobs to push costs lower. Earnings are due in early November.

---

My plan: no chase after a 38% bounce in three weeks. I'd start at $740 and add down to $680, where the bounce's 50% to 61.8% retrace meets the long-term fib. First target is the 200-day near $1,150. A weekly close below $580 means I'm wrong. Multi-year hold.

Sources: FMP: quote, daily closes, financials, estimates, segments (data) · Fair Isaac 8-K: ~15% workforce reduction, ~$27M pre-tax charges · WSJ: Fair Isaac to cut about 15% of workforce · National Mortgage Professional: job cuts, Q3 revenue +26%, scores +41% · WSJ: Fair Isaac stock sinks on Pulte comment (Sep 29) · Yahoo Finance: one pricing grid, Rocket picks VantageScore

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.