Market Pulse & Substack Newsletter

Viral chart: global stocks down ~$10T from highs, South Korea -43%; a 43% drop needs a 75% gain to recover

A chart going around X this weekend says global stock markets have lost about $10 trillion from their yearly highs, with South…

US semiconductor producer prices +26% YoY in September; at that pace chip prices double in about 3 years

US producer prices for chips and electronic components rose 26% YoY in September, the 6th…

Apollo's Torsten Slok: AI shows zero payoff in the S&P 493, so the gains sit in 7 of 500 companies (1.4%)

Apollo's latest note: the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7. And so far…

$GOOGL daily pick: buy a starter before earnings, add $296 to $315

$GOOGL: I'm buying a starter before @Google earnings Wednesday and I'd add $296 to $315. As of Friday's close ($320.21, markets are closed today): 6% below the 200-day and 22% off the May high Q2 revenue up 24% with Cloud up 82% About 21x next year's EPS estimate Down 6% this week on AI capex fears

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $773.5M in two days; BlackRock IBIT went from 40% to 80% of the outflow

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635.6M leave on Wednesday, the biggest single day outflow since June, then another…

Video explainer: OpenAI just knocked $150B off its own price tag. And one person close to the deal called the investor reaction "a bit of a thud."

OpenAI just knocked $150B off its own price tag. And one person close to the deal called the investor reaction "a bit of a thud." Per @CNBC @OpenAI is close to raising up to $30B at a $1.25T valuation, led by UAE investors and Coatue. Signatures are due by the end of next week.

Dow -1.23% vs S&P -0.52% on oil spike: Dow fell 2.4x as hard, Brent-WTI gap $13.45

The Dow fell 653 points (1.23%) to 52,215 today as Brent crude jumped 3.1% to $116.72 after Houthi attacks in Saudi…

Infosys cuts FY27 guide midpoint by a third; AI up 29% QoQ implies non-AI revenue slightly shrank

Infosys (INFY) reported Q2 today and cut its FY27 growth guide to 1-2% from 1.5-3%. The ADRs fell as much as 8%.…

$CRWV stock call: Avoid until $40, buy zone $36 to $40

$CRWV: avoid until $40. I'd only buy at $36 to $40. 71% off the $187 high and 40% below the 200-day Q2 interest expense $640M on a $626M net loss I think the low isn't in because funding is now the whole story.

$META daily pick: buy the post-earnings dip, add $560 to $600

$META: I'm buying the post-earnings dip. Starter here and I'd add $560 to $600. As of midday today ($644.80): Sitting right on the 200-day and 17% off the September high Revenue up 26% to $64.6B with ad prices up 14% About 19x next year's EPS estimate Down 7% Thursday on capex and negative free cash flow

SLB Q3 + Kelvion: $3.4B deal is ~3.7x the annualized data center run rate and ~4 quarters of FCF

SLB, the biggest oilfield services company, reported Q3 this morning: $9.45B of revenue, $828M of free cash flow and data center revenue up…

Amex Q3: $0.74 of $5.42 GAAP EPS (~14%) sits outside adjusted; core EPS growth 13% on 9% revenue

American Express (AXP) reported Q3 this morning: GAAP EPS of $5.42, up 31%, and adjusted EPS of $4.68, up 13%. It…

Newmont Q3: 8% fewer gold ounces but about 17% more margin dollars per AISC math

Newmont (NEM) reported Q3 after the close Thursday: 1.30M attributable gold ounces, down from 1.42M a year ago, yet profit rose…

Western Digital: $5.80 Q2 EPS guide annualizes to $23.20, ~15x at $354

Western Digital (WDC) reported fiscal Q1 after the close Thursday: revenue up 55% to $4.38B, plus a guide of $5.1B and $5.80 EPS…

Bloom Energy Q3: 30% incremental operating margin on $717M of new revenue

Bloom Energy (BE) reported Q3 after the close Thursday: revenue up 138% to $1.24B and 2026 guidance raised to…

$FICO stock call: Buy the dip, accumulate $680 to $740

$FICO: I'm a buyer, but on a pullback to $680 to $740. Down 66% from its 2024 top 24x earnings vs a 52x 5-yr avg Still a 52% operating margin I think VantageScore dents the pricing, not the franchise. Would you buy FICO here?

$LOW daily pick: sell Nov 13 $195 put (buy-side)

$LOW: I'm selling the Nov 13 $195 put and getting paid to wait on Lowe's. As of midday today ($203.74): 11% below the 200-day and 30% off the February high Credit $2.25 for ~1.2% in 22 days (~19% annualized) Breakeven $192.75, about 5% below today About 16.6x this year's EPS estimate with a 6% free cash flow yield

$META deep dive: beat, guided higher, still down. I think it's a buy

$META beat on revenue, guided Q4 above the Street and the stock is still down over 6% this morning. Q3: revenue $64.6B (up 26%). EPS $7.40 excluding a $9.9B legal charge. Ad prices up 14% and impressions up 10%. Q4 guide $73B to $76B.

Meta Q3: capex was 54% of revenue and $1.06 per $1 of operating cash; ~$3.5B cash gap after dividends

Meta (META) reported Q3 Wednesday: revenue up 26% to $64.6B, but $34.9B of capex topped its $32.8B of operating cash…

Lockheed Q3: backlog jumped $61.6B in a quarter (~3x sales); PAC-3 deal ~85% of it; ~3.6 years of sales

Lockheed Martin (LMT) reported Q3 this morning: sales up 11% to $20.7B and a record $292B backlog, up from $230.4B at the…

Lam Research record $8.22B quarter, stock -6%; run rate ~21% of $155B WFE implies ~$42B if 2027 WFE hits $200B

Lam Research (LRCX) posted its biggest quarter ever Wednesday: $8.22B revenue, up 54%. Shares fell ~6% after hours on a guide that…

Texas Instruments Q3: ~80% of the $1.33B revenue gain fell to net income; Q4 guide midpoint is flat vs Q3

Texas Instruments (TXN) reported Q3 after the close Wednesday: revenue up 28% to $6.06B, net income up 78% to $2.43B, data…

$SOFI stock call: Not yet, buy zone $13 to $13.75

$SOFI: not yet. I'd buy at $13 to $13.75. 54% off the high, still 25x the 2026 EPS guide Members up 35% to 15.8M 200-week MA at $13.29 I think the low isn't in because higher rates hit its loan book first.

$ADBE daily pick (refresh Oct 21): sell Nov 20 $235 put (cash-secured)

$ADBE: I'm getting paid to wait for a lower entry. Selling the Nov 20 $235 put for about $3.85 Back at the 200-day ($253) after an 8% bounce 9.2x next year's EPS estimate Breakeven $231.15, 9.5% below today I think Adobe is still priced like AI kills it even…

$T daily pick: starter buy after beat-and-raise selloff, add $20 to $21

$T: I'm buying a starter in AT&T after it dropped 6% on a beat and raise. As of midday today ($21.93): 13% below the 200-day and 26% off the March high About 9x the $2.40 EPS guide @ATT just raised 5.1% dividend yield and Q3 dividends used only 39% of free cash flow $18B+ free cash flow guided for 2026,…

Video explainer: Tesla and SpaceX boards study a merger

Elon Musk just said a Tesla and SpaceX merger would be a "good idea." And for the first time both boards are formally looking at it. On @SpaceX's Q3 call @elonmusk said SpaceX and @Tesla each formed special committees of independent directors to study a deal. He's a conflicted party so he's not in the room and he says a…

S&P 500 top 15 = record 46.7% (27.2% in 2000): avg top-15 weight ~3.1% vs ~0.11% for the other 485 (~28x)

The 15 biggest companies in the S&P 500 now make up a record 46.7% of the index's value, per The…

France 10y hits 5.002%, highest since 2002; 157bp over Bunds = ~1.46x Germany's rate, ~EUR157M/yr extra per EUR10B

France's 10-year government bond yield touched 5.002% Wednesday, its highest since 2002, as protests and a stalled budget add to…

Super Micro prelim Q1: revenue midpoint +27% vs guide, gross profit ~+46% ($2.33B vs $1.59B); margin bump alone ~$310M

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) said Tuesday September quarter revenue hit $18.5B to $19.5B vs its own $14.5B to $15.5B guide, with…

United Q3: fuel cost rose $1.85B vs revenue +$2.65B, eating ~70% of the gain; Q4 fuel at $4.80 is ~$2.25 EPS headwind vs Q3 prices

United Airlines reported record Q3 revenue of $17.9B Tuesday, up 17%, but guided Q4 to $0.50 to $1.50 a share on…

Black Monday 1987 — 22.6% in a Day, Still the Benchmark

On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage…

On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage decline on record. The S&P 500 dropped 20.47%, from 282.70 to 224.84, its own worst day. Analyses…

Mega-Cap Trend Divergence Widens Into Earnings Week

$MSFT closed at $524.51, 3.2% above its 50-day average, heading into results expected October 28.

$MSFT closed at $524.51, 3.2% above its 50-day average, heading into results expected October 28. The stock gained 0.66% in the latest session, one of the few mega-caps in the green. AMZN sits at $248.00, 3.0% below its 50-day average, and reports alongside Microsoft and Alphabet in the coming…

End-of-day recap

LKQ's withdrawn outlook and a 652.82-point Dow slide set the tone today, while oil's climb lifted energy and earnings split winners from losers.

LKQ's withdrawn outlook and a 652.82-point Dow slide set the tone today, while oil's climb lifted energy and earnings split winners from losers. LKQ Corporation fell 22.47% to $17.42, a $4.41B market cap. It withdrew FY26 guidance and now expects a preliminary Q3 loss of $16M-$32M versus a $178M profit a year earlier. Adjusted EPS of 47-53 cents trails the…

Post-COVID Inflation: Fastest Spike, Slowest Retreat

In June 2022, U.S. CPI hit 9% year-over-year, the highest reading in 40 years.

In June 2022, U.S. CPI hit 9% year-over-year, the highest reading in 40 years. The Federal Reserve responded by taking the funds rate from 0.08% to 5.33% in 19 months, 525 basis points, the fastest tightening cycle since Paul…

Afternoon update

$LKQ lost more than a fifth of its value Friday after a CEO exit and a preliminary Q3 warning, while crude above $100 lifted energy names across the…

$LKQ lost more than a fifth of its value Friday after a CEO exit and a preliminary Q3 warning, while crude above $100 lifted energy names across the board. LKQ fell 21.23% to a $4.46B market cap after ousting CEO Justin Jude. It guided…

Midday update

Midday Friday: Crown Castle is up 11.1% on SpaceX tower talks while Bloom Energy falls 11.6% despite beating and raising.

Midday Friday: Crown Castle is up 11.1% on SpaceX tower talks while Bloom Energy falls 11.6% despite beating and raising. S&P 500 -0.11%, Nasdaq +0.26%. $CCI +11.1% ($38.3B market cap): SpaceX is in talks to lease access to up to 80,000 US cell…

Mega-Cap Earnings Dispersion

Mega-cap dispersion is now being driven by earnings season, and the clearest signal is that beating estimates is not enough when the spending…

Mega-cap dispersion is now being driven by earnings season, and the clearest signal is that beating estimates is not enough when the spending outlook disappoints. Meta beat on EPS ($7.40 vs $6.54) and revenue ($64.60B vs $63.34B), yet sits 7.23% below its pre-earnings close of $697.52 after a 6.98% reaction session. Reporting tied the selloff to a…

Stablecoins Move Into The Payments Rails — 5 stocks

Coinbase, Circle, PayPal, SoFi and Remitly are all pushing stablecoins into core payments, with reserve income on those balances a major prize.

Payments companies are racing to put stablecoins into the plumbing: card settlement, bank payment platforms, branded issuance. A niche crypto product is moving toward core payments infrastructure, and these five names are building it. Coinbase ($COIN) distributes USDC, runs the Base network, and takes a cut of crypto trading volume broadly. Average USDC held in its products hit a record…

End-of-day recap

AI spending concerns dragged the Nasdaq down 2.60% as most US stocks rose and defensive sectors led.

Concerns over AI spending pulled the Nasdaq down 2.60% on Oct 22, 2026, while most US stocks rose and defensive sectors led. $NVDA closed at $212.21, down 4.40%, on 121.61M shares, for a $5.11T market cap. CNBC tied the drop to AI spending worries. CEO Jensen Huang said capital demand exceeded capital availability in the AI buildout.

On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,048.62, a level it would not exceed for fifteen years.

On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,048.62, a level it would not exceed for fifteen years. Investors were paying roughly 122 times trailing earnings for the average technology stock. The Nasdaq now stands at 26,326.69 at the latest close, about 5.21 times its…

Afternoon update

Stocks fell as concerns over AI spending and uncertain returns hit technology shares, while consumer staples provided a defensive contrast.

As of 2:02 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was down 1.48% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.75%. Renewed concern about AI infrastructure spending and uncertain return timelines weighed on technology and growth shares. Moderna (MRNA) was the afternoon's largest featured decline, down…

Midday update

$TTMI fell 27.08% by midday Thursday, reversing an early beat.

$TTMI fell 27.08% by midday Thursday, reversing an early beat. The Nasdaq is down 2.30% and the S&P 500 is down 1.34% as Tesla's and Meta's earnings failed to ease doubts about the AI outlook. TTM Technologies beat Q3 views and raised full-year EPS…

Defensives Lead, Tech Lags With the 10-Year at 5.13%

Defensive sectors rose as Technology and Energy fell, signaling a shift toward predictable cash flows despite high Treasury yields.

The 10-year Treasury's latest close is 5.13%, yet today's sector tape is not sorting by rate sensitivity. Utilities are up 0.88%, Real Estate 0.53% and Financials 0.46%. Technology is down 3.21%, the worst sector today, and Energy has…

TKO Group Holdings, the parent company of UFC and WWE, closed its last session at $177.94, down 0.95%, and is flat in pre-market.

TKO Group Holdings, the parent company of UFC and WWE, closed its last session at $177.94, down 0.95%, and is flat in pre-market. That is 21.6% below its 52-week high of $226.94 and about 4.1% above its 52-week low of $170.92. Ari…

End-of-day recap

SpaceX earnings and Super Micro's revenue preannouncement lifted tech shares as money rotated toward AI infrastructure.

AI infrastructure set the tone on October 21, 2026. SpaceX earnings and Super Micro's preannouncement lifted tech shares, and the Nasdaq posted its third straight gain. SpaceX (SPCX) rose 7.79% to $159.31, a $2.10 trillion market cap, on 3.35 million options contracts. Elon Musk said power, cooling and electrical equipment now limit new compute, benefiting GE Vernova, Eaton and Vertiv.…

Market Structure Shocks — Then vs Today's Circuit Breakers

Equity crashes prompted market safeguards, while negative oil futures showed that structural risks persisted beyond stocks.

On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed 22.6% in a single session, 508 points, still its worst one-day percentage decline. Volume that day hit about 604 million shares, nearly double the prior record. The next morning's New York Times front page led with "Stocks Plunge 508 Points, a Drop of 22.6%," and the paper's coverage asked: "Does…

Afternoon update

Tech and chips led market gains as Tesla weighed a SpaceX merger and Micron reached a labor deal, removing strike risk in Taichung.

Wednesday afternoon session: the S&P 500 is up 0.64% to 7761.95 and the Nasdaq is up 1.17% to 26732.90. Tech and semiconductors are leading, and communication services is lagging. $TSLA is up 3.51% to $386.84 ($1.53T market cap). On SpaceX's Q3…

Mega-Cap Insider Buying Stays Scarce as Largest Buy Passes One Year

Tracked mega-cap insider buying remains scarce, offering little fresh evidence of management conviction as deal talk and earnings drive moves.

Open-market insider buying across the tracked mega-cap universe still traces back almost entirely to a single $523.8M $TSLA purchase filed by Elon Musk in September 2025, a transaction now more than a year old. Beyond that buy and $3.44M in Microsoft purchases split between two directors, the tracked dataset…

Midday update

One earnings report moved both ends of Wednesday's midday tape.

One earnings report moved both ends of Wednesday's midday tape. $SPCX rose 9.47% to a $2.14 trillion market cap, the Nasdaq gained 1.04%, and the S&P 500 added 0.46%. SpaceX: Q3 revenue was $14.6B, up 161% year over year, against a $12.72B consensus.…

End-of-day recap

A $5.66 billion software deal, two post-earnings slides in industrials and autos, and a rotation out of tech defined the October 20, 2026 session.

A $5.66 billion software deal, two post-earnings slides in industrials and autos, and a rotation out of tech defined the October 20, 2026 session. Braze jumped 51.69% to $45.57 on 64.6M shares after Salesforce agreed to acquire it for approximately $5.66 billion in enterprise value. Shareholders will receive $47.50 in cash per share, against a prior market cap of $5.18B.

Great Financial Crisis

In 2009, every major U.S. bank was in the same crisis.

In 2009, every major U.S. bank was in the same crisis. The S&P 500 had closed at a peak of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007 and at a trough of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, a 56.8% close-to-close collapse that took the entire financial system to the edge. At the trough, the market was pricing in the real possibility that…

Afternoon update

Earnings repriced three large caps by 8% or more this afternoon.

Earnings repriced three large caps by 8% or more this afternoon. At 2:02 PM ET, the S&P 500 was up 0.40% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.21%. Equifax +10.45% ($20.58B market cap): a Q3 earnings…

HDFC Bank (HDB)

HDFC Bank (HDB) trades at $23.37, 37.6% below its $37.45 52-week high and close to its $21.71 low. The in-house 2-stage DCF base case is $93.92. A gap that large is the setup, and it is also a claim that needs stress-testing before it is trusted.

Midday update

Braze ($BRZE) jumped 50.73% by 11:32 AM ET on October 20 after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company.

Braze ($BRZE) jumped 50.73% by 11:32 AM ET on October 20 after Salesforce agreed to acquire the company. General Motors fell on its full-year outlook. Braze traded up 50.73% with a $5.15B market cap. Salesforce agreed to buy it for $5.66B, or…

The Mega-Cap Balance Sheet Fortress Ranking

Mega-cap solvency is less bifurcated than it seems, with NVDA's $62.5B cash against $38.9B debt among four net-cash giants.

The balance sheet fortress ranking shows mega-cap solvency is far less bifurcated than the cash-versus-debt framing suggests. $NVDA holds about $62.5B in cash and short-term investments against roughly $38.9B of debt, or around +$23.6B net cash, but it is one of four net-cash-positive…

eod-market-recap · Steel and technology rebound as yields rise

Steel and tech shares rose as yields moved up. The close paired gains in chips with fresh calls on cloud, streaming and power stocks.

Steel and tech shares rose as yields moved up. The close paired gains in chips with fresh calls on cloud, streaming and power stocks. CLF rose 16.34% to $14.10 on its earnings beat. It posted $612M in adjusted EBITDA, above its $575M guide, and sees about $715M next quarter. Its report came out before the open, not after the close.

Edward Decker

Home Depot CEO Ted Decker is on temporary medical leave, with CFO Richard McPhail serving as interim principal executive officer.

Edward "Ted" Decker has worked at Home Depot for 26 years. He's been CEO for four and a half of them, and right now he's on temporary medical leave. He joined in 2000 after finance and strategic-planning roles at Kimberly-Clark, Scott Paper, and PNC Bank. The path inside Home Depot ran through nearly every part of the business: SVP of…

Dot-Com Bubble — AI Scale vs Valuation Today

On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high of 5,048, the exact day the tech sector's price-to-earnings ratio on the exchange…

On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high of 5,048, the exact day the tech sector's price-to-earnings ratio on the exchange peaked at 122x. Nine days earlier, the New York Times had run the headline "Technology Shares Lift Nasdaq Index to Another…

Afternoon update

Tech led a rebound on Monday.

Tech led a rebound on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 7700.66, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.20% to 26454.27. $CLF jumped 16.30% to $14.10 after Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.28 beat the $0.21 FactSet estimate. Cleveland-Cliffs cited tariff protection and strong…

Midday update

Disc Medicine ($IRON) jumped 37.72% after its Phase 3 APOLLO trial of bitopertin met all endpoints, as memory-chip stocks led a broad AI rebound.

Disc Medicine ($IRON) is up 37.72% at midday Monday after a Phase 3 win, while memory-chip names led a broad AI rebound. The S&P 500 is +0.82% and the Nasdaq is +1.65%. Disc Medicine (+37.72%, $2.97B market cap): The Phase 3 APOLLO trial of…