$SOFI stock call: Not yet, buy zone $13 to $13.75

$SOFI: not yet. I'd buy at $13 to $13.75.

54% off the high, still 25x the 2026 EPS guide
Members up 35% to 15.8M
200-week MA at $13.29

I think the low isn't in because higher rates hit its loan book first.

Would you buy before or after Oct 27 earnings?

Not financial advice

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Bear case: SoFi hit a 52-week low of $13.86 on Oct 15 after September CPI came in at +0.6% and yields jumped. It carries loans at fair value, so higher rates mark them down. KBW rates it Underperform with a $15 target and thinks rates cost the loan book over $1B in Q3 before hedges.

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Chart + wave read: I count $8.60 (Apr 2025) to $32.73 (Nov) as 5 waves up. Since then an A-B-C: A hit $14.93 in April, B ranged up to $20.13 and C began at $19.50 in August. Inside C, wave 5 = wave 1 gives $12.96. The 78.6% retrace is $13.76 and the 200-week MA $13.29. That's my zone.

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The business is growing fast. Q2 adjusted revenue hit a record $1.2B, up 40%. Members grew 35% to 15.8M and products 42% to 24.4M. It raised its 2026 revenue guide to $4.75B to $4.85B with about $0.60 of adjusted EPS. Tangible book is $7.34 a share, so you pay about 2x. It reports Oct 27.

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My plan: no buying at $14.98. I'd start small near $13.75 and add near $13 if Oct 27 shows credit holding and the 2026 guide intact. A weekly close below $12 means I wait. A weekly close back above the 50-day near $16.90 would also change my mind. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade.

Sources: SoFi Q2 2026 results (Jul 29, 2026): $1.2B adj. revenue +40%, 15.8M members +35%, 2026 guide $4.75B to $4.85B, ~$0.60 ad · SoFi Q2 2026 investor presentation: guidance table, deposits $46B, tangible book $9.5B · TIKR: SoFi hit $13.86 on Oct 15; KBW $15 vs StoneX $25; reports Oct 27 (Oct 16, 2026) · TipRanks: KBW stays bearish, $1B+ Q3 rate headwind before hedges, Street $0.17 EPS (Oct 12, 2026) · BLS: September 2026 CPI +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y (Oct 14, 2026) · CNBC: consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, 3.7% annual rate (Oct 14, 2026)

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.