$GOOGL daily pick: buy a starter before earnings, add $296 to $315

$GOOGL: I'm buying a starter before @Google earnings Wednesday and I'd add $296 to $315.

As of Friday's close ($320.21, markets are closed today):
6% below the 200-day and 22% off the May high
Q2 revenue up 24% with Cloud up 82%
About 21x next year's EPS estimate
Down 6% this week on AI capex fears

I think the capex fear is mostly priced in because Cloud has a $514B backlog and total revenue is still growing over 20%.

Would you buy Google before Wednesday's report or wait for the 2027 capex number?

Not financial advice

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Why now? Alphabet has beaten estimates in each of its last 8 reports and still slid under the 200-day this week right after Meta fell on its capex bill. Capex doubled to $44.9B last quarter and free cash flow went negative (-$5.9B) for the first time. I'd rather start when the market is scared of the bill.

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Bear case: 2026 capex guidance is $195B to $205B and management says 2027 will "increase significantly." They raised about $70B in equity and debt and suspended buybacks to pay for it. If Cloud margins slip Wednesday this can get to my add zone fast.

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The catalyst: Q3 results Wednesday Oct 28 after the close, the same day as the Fed decision. The Street wants about $127.9B in revenue (+25%) and $3.03 EPS. Cloud margin (35.6% last quarter) and any early 2027 capex color from @sundarpichai are what I care about.

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What I'd watch: a close back over the 200-day at $341.31 tells me the sellers are done. A weekly close under the $272.11 March low means I'm wrong and I'd step aside. Street target is about $431 with 72 Buys and 10 Holds for what it's worth.

Sources: FMP: $GOOGL quote, 50/200-day, estimates, earnings date, cash flow and price history (Fri Oct 23 close) · Robinhood: $GOOGL Fri Oct 23 last trade $320.27, after hours $321.15 · 24/7 Wall St: Cloud +82%, $514B backlog, capex $44.9B, FCF -$5.86B, $195B-$205B 2026 capex, buybacks suspended, Oct 24 · X story: Alphabet drops 21% into correction ahead of Oct 28 earnings · X story: earnings week Oct 26-30, Fed decision Wednesday overlaps Alphabet · Zacks: Alphabet Q3 earnings preview, Oct 23

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.