Two days ago I wrote that the White House ruling out Iran strikes before the midterms left the post-election risk wide open, and that…
Two days ago I wrote that the White House ruling out Iran strikes before the midterms left the post-election risk wide open, and that planning is not authorization. That gap just got harder to ignore.
At a rally in Fort Myers, Trump said "we may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree." That's the name of the US-Israeli strikes that opened the war in February. He gave no timeline, and he didn't explicitly walk back the pre-midterm assurance.
The rest of the week points the same direction. DNI Jay Clayton told Secretary Rubio that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel, with lethal plotting at advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries.
Officials put the threat to Americans at its highest since the war started. State ordered non-essential staff and families out of Saudi Arabia, and the embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE are cutting staff and operating under restrictions, citing Iranian and Houthi threats.
Iran's response is explicit. Senior security officials told Reuters that Iran has plans to hit undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the US and Israel attack again, and that there would be "no more red lines." An IRGC official has threatened seven cables under Hormuz if Iranian infrastructure is hit.
Per the WSJ, sailors are loading munitions and readying aircraft on US warships, and Ambassador Tom Barrack said a strike could come as early as this weekend, timing Trump later said he knew nothing about.
One official says Iran's capability lags its ambition. I hope so. But with eight months of war already pushing up oil and gas prices, I'd be pricing the cable and Hormuz threats as real risks rather than rhetoric.
Sources:
Reuters (via Internazionale): https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/10/24/trump-says-us-may-do-another-military-operation-against-iran
Boston Globe: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/24/world/iran-advanced-stages-planning-attacks-americans/
Iran International (citing WSJ): https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610243623
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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