About $117.62 was the intraday high for expiring December Brent on October 30.
About $117.62 was the intraday high for expiring December Brent on October 30. $114.88 was the settle. That round trip keeps my bearish oil lean intact, but I'll say plainly what would flip it: a full-blown war, and the catalysts behind this spike are exactly how one starts.
- December Brent rose as much as $2.74 to about $117.62 after UKMTO reported a tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; responsibility for the attack was not established. Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy sites added to the supply fears.
- By the close, December Brent settled at $114.88, down $0.44 on the day, as hopes of renewed U.S.–Iran peace talks offset the supply risk. The big spike was in the expiring December contract; the more-active January contract traded at a materially lower level. Diplomacy still wins the tape when it shows up.
- The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 and called inflation elevated. On October 30, Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin said gradual rate increases are appropriate in direction, with the pace depending on incoming information. Sticky oil gives that camp more ammunition.
- My inflation worry stays high regardless. Tariffs plus $115 oil is a tough mix for anyone hoping prices cool.
I still lean toward oil grinding lower as Washington pushes for a deal. If Hormuz attacks become a pattern and Brent holds above $115 into next week, I'd treat that view as under real pressure.
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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End-of-day recap
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