$ASML daily pick: buy a starter after the post-midterm chip selloff, add $1,250 to $1,360
$ASML: I'm buying a starter in @ASMLcompany after the post-midterm chip selloff.
Friday close ($1,424.75):
11% under the 200-day
29% off the June 30 high
About 22x 2027 EPS estimates
Q4 sales guide €14.2B to €15.2B vs €11.7B in Q3
I think the drop is overdone because ASML says its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 won't fully meet demand and some customers already want to order for 2029 and 2030.
Customers are trying to book 2030 machines and the stock is priced like the AI buildout ended on election night.
Not financial advice
What happened: ASML fell 9.3% on Thursday to $1,356.65 as chip stocks sold off after the Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of slower data-center building, especially in Texas. There was no ASML-specific news. It bounced 5% on Friday.
Why I want to own it: Q3 sales were a record €11.7B with a 57.5% gross margin and net income of €5.0B. ASML guides full-year 2026 sales to €44B to €45B, which is about 36% growth. Nobody else sells EUV machines.
The plan: a starter here and adds between $1,250 and $1,360, which runs from Thursday's low down to the March low. If it closes under the March 30 low of $1,248.11 (about 12% lower) I rethink it. First target is the 200-day near $1,600 and second is the 50-day near $1,677.
The risks: China is about 20% of 2026 sales and tighter US export rules could come up with the new Congress. If chipmakers slow their fab plans the orders follow. The next check is the Jan 27 report, where ASML gives its first 2027 outlook.
Sources: ASML official: Q3 2026 sales EUR 11.7B, 57.5% GM, Q4 guide EUR 14.2-15.2B, 2027/28 supply short of demand · CNBC: ASML getting order interest through 2030, FY26 guide EUR 44-45B · Motley Fool Q3 call transcript: FY26 sales +36%, China ~20% of 2026 sales · Investing.com: ASML slid on midterm-driven chip selloff, China ~20% of 2026 revenue · TIKR: no ASML news in the selloff, first 2027 outlook with Q4 results Jan 27 · GuruFocus: ASML -9.3% Nov 5 to $1,356.65, 52-week range $946.11 to $1,999.96
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$ETN daily pick: sell Dec 18 $300 put (buy-side) after the midterm data-center washout
$ETN: I'm selling the Dec 18 $300 put on @EatonCorp after a beat-and-raise got washed out with the data-center complex. Live at 12:15pm ET ($339.78): 14% under the 200-day About 21x 2027 EPS estimates $7.80 credit, breakeven $292.20 About 2.6% in 42 days (~23% annualized)
Quote post: @charliebilello on chip stocks below all-time highs ($NVDA needs about 28% to regain its record close)
$NVDA closed at a record $239.24 on Oct 6 and at $181.60 on Nov 5. After Friday's bounce to about $186.6 it needs about…
Credit Rating Downgrades — Three Cuts, One Safe Haven
U.S. debt lost its top rating at all three major agencies as rising debt and interest costs weakened fiscal strength.
On August 5, 2011, S&P stripped the United States of its AAA credit rating for the first time in the nation's history, cutting it to AA+. The New York Times headline two days later: "S.&P. Downgrades Debt Rating of U.S. for the First Time." The S&P 500 fell about 6.7% the next session, its worst single day since 2008, though…
Technology led as eight of eleven sectors fell, highlighting a market advance concentrated in a handful of growth sectors.
Sector dispersion stands at 2.74 percentage points in the latest session, with Technology up 1.45% against a 1.28% decline in Consumer Defensive. The backdrop is a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.86% at the latest close, below the 5.05% it…