$BA daily pick: sell Dec 18 $160 put (buy-side) after the Q3 selloff
$BA: I'm selling the Dec 18 $160 put on @Boeing after today's 10% drop and getting paid to wait.
As of midday ($169.99):
Lowest since April 2025 and 22% below the 200-day
Credit $3.55 for ~2.2% in 52 days (~16% annualized)
Breakeven $156.45, about 8% below today
Record $745B backlog
I think the selloff is more about timing than the story because Boeing still laid out free cash flow going from about $2B this year to $10B in 2029 and the stock is about 13x that 2029 target.
Would you sell puts on Boeing here or wait for the 737 ramp to show up first?
Not financial advice
Why a put and not shares? Q3 revenue rose 4% to $24.19B and free cash flow was $464M but the core loss of $0.34 a share was worse than expected and commercial planes lost $697M. I'd rather not catch it mid drop so I'll collect $355 and let it come to me under $160.
Don't have $16k sitting in cash? Defined-risk version: sell the $160 put and buy the Dec 18 $140 put for about $2.98 credit. Max risk $1,702 and breakeven $157.02. You lose the full $1,702 if it's under $140 on Dec 18.
Bear case: Boeing now targets 737 rate 52 in the back half of 2027 and expects to come in shy of 500 deliveries this year. The 2027 cash target is only about $3B so most of the payoff is in 2028 and 2029. If the 777X slips again that path slips too.
What I'd watch: monthly 737 deliveries and 777X certification, still planned for first delivery in 2027. Last year's Q4 report came Jan 27 so this put should expire before the next print. Street target is about $270 with 38 Buys, 12 Holds and 5 Sells for what it's worth.
Sources: Boeing: Q3 2026 results press release · CNBC: Boeing stock sinks 9%, 737 ramp to late 2027 · Investing.com: Boeing posts wider-than-expected loss · Benzinga: Boeing Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · Reuters via CNA: slower 737 production and FCF outlook · X trending story: Boeing shares plunge 9% after earnings
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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