$BA stock call: Not yet, buy zone $137 to $156

$BA: not yet. I'd buy around $137 to $156.

Down 10% today to a new 52-week low near $169
22% below its 200-day after Q3

I think it gets cheaper because the 737 ramp slipped to 2027 and cash flow slips with it.

Would you buy Boeing here or wait?

Not financial advice

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Bear case: Boeing now sees the 737 at 47 a month in early 2027 and 52 a month only in the second half of 2027. It will miss its 500-jet delivery goal this year. The jets unit lost $697M last quarter and the free cash flow target is about $3B for 2027 with $10B not until 2029.

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Chart + wave read: I see an A-B-C drop from the $254 January top. A hit $188 in March, B bounced to $244 in May and C is running now. Today it broke the 61.8% retrace at $177. The 78.6% retrace is $156 and C = 1.618 x A points to $136, by the Nov 2024 low of $137.

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The business: a record $745B backlog and one of only two makers of big jets. Revenue grew 4% to $24.19B and defense revenue rose 15%. Free cash flow turned positive at $464M in Q3. The weak spots are $45.9B of debt against $20.7B of cash and a long ramp ahead.

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My plan: wait and buy in pieces from $156 down to $137, where the 78.6% retrace, the C target and the Nov 2024 low line up. Real delivery progress and a move back above the 200-day near $218 would make me rethink. If it closes a week below the Apr 2025 low of $129 I keep waiting.

Sources: Boeing IR: Q3 2026 results · CNBC: Boeing Q3 2026 earnings · Reuters via Investing.com: production challenges weigh on Q3 · CNA (Reuters): shares plunge on slower 737 output and weaker FCF outlook · Investing.com: Boeing Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · Yahoo Finance: Boeing misses estimates, 737 ramp

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.