Following up on Monday's oil drop on deal hopes.
Following up on Monday's oil drop on deal hopes. A US official said the US carried out defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. The targets were Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets. Iranian state TV reported explosions on Qeshm Island. AP and the official described the strikes as limited.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Qeshm action was the latest in a series of limited strikes in recent weeks. The strikes came after Trump said the US wouldn't strike before today's midterms.
Iran also moved on the diplomatic track. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the September seven-step plan to reopen the strait has been condensed so it could be implemented within two days, down from a week. It is conditional on the US ending its naval blockade, lifting sanctions, and agreeing to a ceasefire that includes Lebanon.
Vance said he and the president feel "pretty good" about a negotiated settlement, with no deadline set and a requirement for a verifiable commitment that Iran won't rebuild its nuclear program. Trump posted that a deal "could happen." Reuters reported that talks with Qatari mediators ended with no breakthrough.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu pushed Trump over the weekend for a quick but extensive air campaign, and Trump reportedly hasn't decided. In early Asian trading, Reuters reported Brent and WTI each up about 0.5% after the Qeshm strike reports. My read is that both sides are applying pressure and offering openings at the same time. The question I keep coming back to is which version of Monday the oil market is actually pricing.
Sources:
AP via WSVN: https://wsvn.com/news/us-world/us-has-conducted-defensive-strikes-on-some-iranian-targets-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-us-official-says/
Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranians-have-left-doha-talks-draft-proposal-us-deal-being-circulated-official-2026-11-02/
Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/2/iran-pushing-accelerated-plan-for-ceasefire-talks-with-us
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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