$GEV daily pick: buy a starter after the SoftBank write-down drop, add $710 to $750

$GEV: I'm buying a starter in @GEVernova after today's 7% drop on the SoftBank news.

At midday ($770.49):
19% under the 200-day
36% off the July high
About 30x 2027 and 22x 2028 EPS estimates
$197B backlog with Q3 orders up 96%

I think the market is overreacting to one customer's write-down because SoftBank says its Ohio project is not being downsized and GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue guide to $46.5B to $47.5B on Oct 28.

One buyer changing its equipment plans is not a reason to price this stock like the turbine shortage is over.

Not financial advice

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What happened: SoftBank reported a quarterly net loss of about $7B today. It included a $3.7B write-down on non-refundable payments it made for power equipment for its US AI data centers after it changed its procurement plans. SoftBank has named GE Vernova as the turbine supplier for its Ohio project. GEV fell as much as 9.9% to $747 and gave back all of Monday's 7.1% gain.

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Why I want to own it: Q3 orders were $29.3B (up 96% organically) and the backlog reached $197B. Gas turbine backlog and slot reservations grew to 122 GW and management expects at least 130 GW by year end. GE Vernova also raised its 2026 free cash flow guide to $16B to $17B and doubled the buyback authorization to $20B.

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The plan: a starter here and adds between $710 and $750, which runs from the Feb 4 low of $708.75 up to today's low of $747. If it closes under $708.75 (about 8% lower) I rethink it. First target is the 50-day near $922 and second is the 200-day near $950.

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The risks: SoftBank's CFO said "There is no such default" after Elon Musk posted that it was defaulting on turbine orders, but the write-down still shows that AI customers can change their plans. If more of them give up reserved slots the orders will slow. The stock is not cheap at about 30x 2027 earnings and the next report is around Jan 27.

Sources: GE Vernova Q3 2026 release: orders $29B +96% organic, backlog $197B, 122 GW gas, 2026 guide raised (rev $46.5-47.5B, FCF · GuruFocus via Investing: Q3 orders $29.3B +96%, backlog $197B, FCF guide $16-17B, buyback doubled to $20B · Stocktwits: revenue guide raised to $46.5-47.5B, at least 130 GW by year end, EPS $4.81 vs $4 · Dow Jones/MarketWatch: SoftBank $3.7B write-down, non-refundable payments, GE Vernova named Ohio turbine supplier · The Deep Dive: CFO Goto 'There is no such default', Ohio PORTS-Pike not downsized, ~$7B net loss · Bloomberg: SoftBank swings to $7.1B loss after $3.7B US data-center power equipment write-down

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.