$GOOGL stock call: Not yet, buy zone $243 to $275
$GOOGL: Not yet. I think the better buy is around $275.
17% below its 200-day after the earnings drop
Q3 free cash flow of -$9.1B
Cloud still grew 103%
Great business. I just want a lower price while capex eats the cash.
Not financial advice
The bear case is cash. Free cash flow was -$9.1B in Q3 after -$5.9B in Q2. Capex is guided at $195B to $205B this year and the CFO says 2027 goes up significantly. Search also missed at $63.35B vs the $64.96B estimate.
The chart: I read the drop from the $408.61 May top as an A-B-C. A ended at $314.90 in July, B bounced to $384.48 and C is running now. The 50% retrace of the Apr 2025 to May 2026 run is $275, right on the Nov and Mar lows near $271. The 61.8% is $243.
The business: Q3 revenue grew 25% to $127.6B with a 31.8% operating margin and Cloud more than doubled to $30.7B. Alphabet holds $265B in cash and securities vs $125B of long-term debt. At $282 it trades near 18.5x the 2027 EPS estimate.
My plan: no buy today. I'd start at $271 to $275, add near $243 and hold for years. A weekly close below $235 means my wave count is wrong and I step back. If it reclaims the 200-day first I'll miss it and that's fine.
Sources: Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings release (IR PDF) · CNBC: Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings · CNBC: Alphabet shares slide after earnings · CNBC: Analyst reaction to Alphabet Q3 · Reuters via Investing.com: Alphabet cloud spending drives bigger-than-expected cash burn · Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call transcript
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$GOOGL deep dive: down 12% after Q3 with Cloud up 103%. I think it's still a buy
$GOOGL fell 12% today to about $286 after Q3. Google Cloud more than doubled and the stock still got crushed. I think it's still a buy but I'm staging it. Q3: revenue $127.6B (+25%) and a touch light. Cloud grew 103% to $30.7B with a 36% margin and a $561B backlog. Search grew only 12% to $63.4B…
$NOW daily pick: sell Dec 18 $100 put (buy-side) after the record Q3 selloff
$NOW: I'm selling the Dec 18 $100 put on @ServiceNow after its worst day ever and getting paid to wait. As of midday ($111.85): Down 25% today and 42% off the high, just under the 200-day Credit $3.15 for about 3.2% in 50 days (~23% annualized) Breakeven $96.85, about 13% below today About 23x 2027 EPS estimates
Latest Earnings Show Why Net Margins Need Context
$GOOGL reached $280.36 this morning, 13.71% below its pre-earnings close, after Alphabet reported Q3 EPS and revenue below estimates.
$GOOGL reached $280.36 this morning, 13.71% below its pre-earnings close, after Alphabet reported Q3 EPS and revenue below estimates. Shares recovered 1.59% from that low to $284.82, still down 12.33%. Search advertising growth slowed to 12%, while $51.4B in capital spending…
A Fabulous Debt — the bond market's history, as yields ease
The 10-year Treasury yield has eased over the past week, but its reach across markets hasn't changed.
The 10-year Treasury yield has eased over the past week, but its reach across markets hasn't changed. The U.S. Treasury's latest available daily par yield curve puts it at 5.05% on October 28, down from 5.13% on October…