I stay worried about yields after Waller's Nov.

I stay worried about yields after Waller's Nov. 10 speech, and what would change my mind is a Fed chair who breaks from the White House and does what the economy needs. A hike that markets already expect does nothing to calm me.

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a 25bp December hike even if October inflation improves, and that 50bp should be considered if core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher.
• He supported holding rates at the last meeting. He describes inflation as above the 2% goal, activity as strong, and the labor market as stable.
• CNBC put December hike odds above 80%, and Reuters reported Treasury yields rose after his remarks. CNBC had the 2-year at 4.612% and the 10-year at 4.897% early Tuesday.
• U.S. stock futures were mixed on the morning of Nov. 10, with October CPI due later that day.

Yields near 4.9% on the 10-year keep me in the camp that something breaks if rates keep climbing. I'd flip if debt came under control or GDP grew fast enough to cover the interest, and a cool CPI print would at least take 50bp off the table. I could be wrong, but I'd wait for that number before trusting any rally.

Sources:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261110a.htm
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-plans-support-least-quarter-point-rate-hike-december-2026-11-10/
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/11/10/us-bonds-treasurys-yields.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-stock-futures-mixed-ahead-100856193.html

Source:
AP/U.S. News: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-11-10/feds-waller-plans-to-support-at-least-a-quarter-point-rate-hike-in-december

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.