$INTU daily pick: buy a starter a week before earnings, add $300 to $315

$INTU: I'm buying a starter in @Intuit a week before earnings.

At midday ($342.82):
50% off the 52-week high and down 48% this year
About 15x the fiscal 2027 EPS guide, which now counts stock comp as an expense
Revenue guided up 9% to 10% this year
Reports Nov 19 after the close

I think the AI fear is mostly in the price because the stock trades at about 15x earnings while Intuit still guides EPS growth of 23% to 24% on that same basis. I would add between $300 and $315.

A 12 cent AI tax return sounds great until the IRS sends a letter.

Not financial advice

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What happened: the market decided AI tools will replace TurboTax and QuickBooks. In May Intuit cut 17% of its workforce and lowered its TurboTax revenue forecast. In June Goldman Sachs cut the stock to Sell with a $276 target and estimated an AI model can process a typical return for about $0.12 vs TurboTax's average revenue of $162 per return. In August the fiscal 2027 guide came in below estimates and the stock fell 12% the next day.

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Why I want to own it: fiscal 2026 revenue grew 14% to $21.4B and GAAP EPS grew 20% to $16.46. The business segment that includes QuickBooks is guided to grow 13% to 14% this year. Intuit bought back $5.5B of stock last year, has $7.9B left on the authorization and raised the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.38.

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The plan: a starter here and adds between $300 and $315, near the $307 close after the May drop and the $306 close on Oct 12. If it closes under the Sep 28 low of $262.30 (about 24% lower) I am wrong. First target is $384 (the close before the May drop) and the second is $446 (the Feb 4 close).

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The risks: TurboTax lost do-it-yourself customers to cheaper providers last year and TurboTax revenue is guided up only 2% to 3%. Mailchimp is guided flat to down 1%. The Q1 EPS guide is $2.44 to $2.48 with consensus near the middle, so a weak report on Nov 19 could send it to my add zone quickly. That is why I am starting small.

Sources: Intuit Q4 FY26 release: FY26 revenue +14% to $21.4B, GAAP EPS $16.46, FY27 guide revenue $23.28-23.51B, non-GAAP EPS $22 · StreetInsider: Investor Day reaffirms FY27 and Q1 guidance, non-GAAP now includes stock comp · Intuit: Q1 FY27 results Nov 19 after the close · MarketBeat: Q1 consensus $2.46 vs guide $2.44-2.48, dividend $1.38 · Reuters: Intuit trims TurboTax forecast, cuts 17% of workforce (May 20) · Investing.com: Goldman cuts to Sell, $276 target, $0.12 AI return vs $162 TurboTax revenue per return

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.