Novo Nordisk ($NVO): buy in pieces $35 to $42, long term

$NVO: I think Novo Nordisk is a buy because the outlook just got raised and the multiple did not.

8% below its 200-day
About 11x trailing earnings vs a 5-year average near 30x
4.5% dividend yield

I'm buying in pieces between $35 and $42 to hold for years.

Not financial advice

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The bear case is Eli Lilly and US pricing. Injectable Wegovy still loses share to Zepbound and Wegovy's US price eroded about 30% to 35% in Q3. Citi kept a neutral rating after the print citing pricing uncertainty and a fuzzy next act after Wegovy.

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The chart: I read the fall from the $94 top on Feb 25 2025 as an A-B-C correction. A ended near $47 in July 2025, B bounced to $64 in January and C bottomed at $35.12 on March 30. The Oct 5 low of $36.85 held above it. Price is still under the 200-day near $44.

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The business: Q3 sales were DKK 79.2B ($11.9B), up 4% at constant currency. Adjusted operating profit was DKK 31.7B and beat estimates. Wegovy pill sales hit DKK 5.4B and took about 80% of US new oral obesity starts. Management raised 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit growth to -2% to +2%.

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My plan: I'm adding between $35 and $42 and holding for years. A weekly close below $34, under the March low, means I'm wrong. The stock trades near 7x EV/EBITDA versus a 5-year average near 22x. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade.

Sources: CNBC: Novo Q3 2026, Wegovy pill beat, outlook raised to -2% to +2% · Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 investor presentation · Fierce Pharma: Wegovy pill Q3 DKK 5.4B and launch plans · Cestrian: NVO Q3 figures, guidance raise and FCF guide DKK 60-70B · Motley Fool: Novo Nordisk Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · Yahoo Finance: Novo raises 2026 outlook after Q3

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.