$NVDA stock call: Not yet, buy zone $140 to $147
$NVDA: Not yet. I'd buy between $140 and $147.
20% below its 200-day and about 10x next year's expected earnings
I think the stock is cheap but the CEO exit and next week's earnings report could push it lower first.
Not financial advice
The bear case is serious. Jensen Huang resigned today and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent one. Baird cut the stock to neutral with a $200 target and estimates a possible $5B write-down if H200 exports to China are banned. It also expects big cloud AI spending to grow 40% or less in 2027.
The chart: the rally ran from $86.62 in April 2025 to $243.37 on October 6. I count the fall since then as an A-B-C. A ended at $200.92 on October 30 and B bounced to $209.98 on November 2. C reached $148.80 this morning. C at 1.618 times A is $141.29 and the 61.8% retrace of the whole rally is $146.50.
The business is still growing fast. Q2 revenue rose 106% to $96.2B and data center revenue was $89.0B. Nvidia guided Q3 to $108B and expects about 70% revenue growth next fiscal year. Analysts expect about $15.80 a share for the year ending January 2028, so $164 is about 10 times that.
My plan: I would not buy ahead of the November 17 report with an interim CEO. I'd start buying between $140 and $147 and hold for years. A weekly close below $120, near the 78.6% retrace, means my count is wrong and I'd wait. I would rather pay $145 after the report than $164 before it.
Sources: NVIDIA Newsroom (Nov 12 2026): Jensen Huang resigns, CFO Colette Kress interim CEO, Harvey Jones chair, Q3 report Nov 17 · NVIDIA 8-K Item 5.02: board accepted Huang resignation Nov 11, Kress interim CEO · TechCrunch: Huang resigns, Kress named interim CEO · NVIDIA Q2 FY27 results: revenue $96.2B +106%, data center $89.0B, GM 75.0%, Q3 guide $108B · Yonhap Infomax: Q2 FY27 $96.22B, data center $89.02B, Q3 guide $108B, ~70% FY2028 growth · CNBC: Baird downgrade to neutral, $200 target, possible $5B write-down, AI capex +40% in 2027
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.