Oil fell roughly 8% on Monday, and the reason it fell is the part I keep coming back to.

Oil fell roughly 8% on Monday, and the reason it fell is the part I keep coming back to. Tehran is now publicly confirming the talks that Trump denied existed on Friday.

WTI crude settled the session down 7.78% at $96.02 after trading as low as $95.16, and Brent fell 8.23% to $104.10 after touching $103.28. Both finished close to their lows. Iran says "intensive" exchanges with Washington are underway and has offered to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The Qatari-mediated talks ran a third straight day and ended without a breakthrough, though Foreign Minister Araqchi says Tehran is prepared to talk. Reuters reports a draft proposal to end the war is circulating after Iranian negotiators left Qatar, and a follow-up meeting is possible.

Meanwhile, Trump is keeping the threat of fresh strikes alive, and Netanyahu reportedly urged him to hit Iran right after Tuesday's midterms. So the contradiction I wrote about over the weekend hasn't gone anywhere. There is a peace track and a strike track, both running, and the calendar question is still open.

Just yesterday tankers were burning in Hormuz. Today traders are pricing in hopes of a deal. My question is which signal you weight more heavily this week: the oil market, or the strike talk coming out of Washington and Jerusalem.

Sources:
AFP: https://www.afp.com/en/oil-prices-plunge-us-iran-detente-hopes-ahead-midterms
Barron's: https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-110226/card/oil-slides-on-optimism-over-iran-talks-rFf69WZJMn25KmsjNeM1
Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-prices-plunge-draft-proposal-143000962.html

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.