On Thursday I was writing about Iran's economy: 88.7% inflation, the rial down about 25% since August, and diplomacy and sanctions…

On Thursday I was writing about Iran's economy: 88.7% inflation, the rial down about 25% since August, and diplomacy and sanctions working as one squeeze. Four days later the shooting is back.

Iran's IRGC Navy said Sunday that two more oil tankers "exploded" after hitting mines on an "unauthorised route" in the Strait of Hormuz. That follows three to four tankers Iran said struck mines and caught fire on October 29-30, with a fourth burning east of the strait.

Also on Sunday, the UK's UKMTO said a merchant vessel was hit by "an unknown projectile." A Qatari LNG tanker was hit by unidentified objects in the Gulf, and Qatar warned of regional instability. The Houthis are now saying Saudi Aramco facilities are "within range."

Meanwhile, the argument in Washington is about timing. Trump says the US still has "one or two targets" in Iran but is in no hurry, and he calls the talks "going fine but... not very reliable." According to Axios, Netanyahu pressed him on Saturday to strike right after Tuesday's midterms. The Israeli side called the call "tough," and the American side called it "direct."

My read is that the US and Israel are debating the calendar while Iran signals it intends to set it. Its army spokesman says a new war could last longer than the one that started in February. With Hormuz traffic already at single-digit daily passings, how much longer can anyone wait?

Sources:
CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/iran-trump-hormuz-oil-middle-east-.html
Gulf News: https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/middle-east-conflict-trump-says-us-still-has-to-take-care-of-one-or-two-targets-in-iran-1.500731311
Middle East Eye: https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/irans-irgc-navy-says-two-tankers-exploded-after-hitting-mines-hormuz

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.