Quote post: @KobeissiLetter on Berkshire beating the S&P 500 by 19 points in a month
Berkshire beat the S&P 500 by 19.2 points over the month to last Thursday. Q3 operating earnings fell 5.8% and insurance underwriting fell 43%, so the earnings aren't what's driving it. I think buyers want a big company with no AI spending bill. That trade can reverse just as fast.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2120549335096033776
Sources: Reuters: Q3 operating earnings down 6% to $12.71B, underwriting down 43%, stock beat S&P by 18+ points since end of Sept · CNBC: Berkshire shares surge as investors rotate from tech into a conglomerate with little AI exposure · Meridian: operating earnings fell 5.8% to $12.705B, underwriting earnings dropped 43%
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$LULU daily pick: sell Jan 15 $90 put (buy-side) at the October low as the new CEO rebuilds
$LULU: I'm selling the Jan 15 $90 put on @lululemon after today's 4% drop. At midday ($106.25): 18% under the 200-day and 53% off the December high About 11x the 2026 EPS guide $2.56 credit, breakeven $87.44 About 2.8% in 65 days (~16% annualized)
$HIMS stock call: Not yet, buy zone $14 to $16
$HIMS: Not yet. I'd buy between $14 and $16. Down 18% today and 30% below its 200-day Gross margin fell to 57% from 74% Subscribers shrank and the Q4 revenue guide missed I think this drop is not finished and the February low near $14 is real support.
Afternoon update
One earnings report repriced the AI infrastructure trade on November 11.
One earnings report repriced the AI infrastructure trade on November 11. CoreWeave's Q3 beat and raised guidance lifted the neocloud and semiconductor names behind it. $NBIS Nebius Group rose 18.91% to a $38.0B market cap in a sympathy move…
Strong earnings met uneven stock reactions as investors weighed margin durability, AI competition and NVIDIA governance risks.
Refiners are converting elevated margins into verified earnings leverage. $VLO beat Q3 EPS estimates by 12.9% ($23.90 vs. $21.17) on $46.1B revenue. $MPC topped consensus by 6.1% ($26.93 vs. $25.37) on $56.5B revenue, with adjusted EBITDA of $11.7B against $3.2B a year earlier. Energy strength is now a function of operational throughput and capital returns, not just comparables. Valero affirmed…