That 9.9% year-to-date gain for stock funds is an October number, and I'd treat it as a snapshot from before the floor moved.
That 9.9% year-to-date gain for stock funds is an October number, and I'd treat it as a snapshot from before the floor moved. It fits my worry that this market is running on a narrow set of tech names.
- LSEG data via the WSJ shows the average U.S. stock mutual fund or ETF up 9.9% through October, after falling 1.3% in October as AI-linked shares sold off. The WSJ itself cautioned the figure misses the most recent declines.
- Then November 5 hit. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% that day, rose 0.31% on November 6, and closed Friday up 7.76% for the year. $SPY was 0.82% above that close in Monday's pre-market, near $741.
- FactSet's November 6 update: with 88% of the S&P 500 reported, 84% beat EPS estimates, but the aggregate beat is 2.7%. If that holds, it's the smallest since Q4 2022.
The closest comparison I can support is FactSet's own: earnings surprises this thin last showed up in Q4 2022, and I don't want to pay peak multiples for thinning beats. I'm watching whether the November fund numbers hold anywhere near 9.9%, though a few calm weeks of consolidation would make me less defensive.
Source:
Morningstar/Dow Jones: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202611092322/dow-jones-top-markets-headlines-at-5-am-et-stock-futures-treasurys-steady-but-nvidia-slides-premarket-on-huang-probe-oil
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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