The number I keep staring at is 100%.
The number I keep staring at is 100%. That is the chance traders now price for a Fed hike at the December 8-9 meeting, and with the 10-year sitting above 5%, I think this is the stretch where something starts to break.
- CNBC had the 10-year up 2 basis points to 5.1271% Friday morning, Nov. 13. The bigger move came Thursday, when it jumped more than 13 basis points above 5%.
- The 30-year rose 3 basis points to 5.4602% while the 2-year slipped 1 basis point. The long end is carrying the pressure.
- Per CNBC, December odds split about 87% for a quarter point and 13% for a half point. That is market pricing. The Fed has decided nothing yet.
- October PPI lands later Friday, expected at 0.4% monthly versus 1.3% for September. A hot print adds fuel.
My read stays worried. Rates pushing higher with debt where it is ends in recession and a falling market, and I trust the Fed to fix that about as much as I trust the White House to stay out of it. I could be wrong if PPI comes in soft and yields pull back before December, but I would not bet on stocks priced for a gentle Fed right now.
Source:
CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/treasury-yields-fed-rates.html
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$MOD at $146.52 premarket, up 38.1% from the $106.10 close, on a report that hasn't been confirmed.
$MOD at $146.52 premarket, up 38.1% from the $106.10 close, on a report that hasn't been confirmed. Deals usually pay the company being bought, so Modine holders got the easy part overnight. The harder question for a practical investor is what's left…
One pre-market session is already chipping away at Thursday's "dump Nvidia, buy its rivals" trade.
One pre-market session is already chipping away at Thursday's "dump Nvidia, buy its rivals" trade. That tells me the rotation was mostly panic. Nobody actually repriced who wins AI chips. Thursday, Nov. 12: $NVDA fell as much as 14.3% intraday after Jensen Huang…
Big Tech Buys Nuclear — 5 stocks
Big tech is changing how it buys power for AI.
Big tech is changing how it buys power for AI. Google signed a 20-year deal with Constellation supporting about 890 megawatts of planned uprates at existing reactors, and Amazon and Meta have signed long-term nuclear agreements of their own. The AI bottleneck is shifting from compute to megawatts.
End-of-day recap
Nvidia shares slid after Jensen Huang resigned, lifting chip rivals, while hot inflation and higher Treasury yields weighed on stocks.
Nvidia's board accepted CEO Jensen Huang's resignation on November 12, 2026, after a second extramarital-affair scandal, triggering a chip-sector reshuffle as a hot October CPI report pushed Treasury yields above 5%. The S&P 500 fell 0.36% to 7,592.06, the Nasdaq 0.39% to 25,366.09, and the Dow 0.36% to 52,297.09. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.66% and the VIX jumped 6.92% to…