$VALE · Vale S.A.
Vale reported 3Q26 results with net operating revenues of $10.6B (+2% y/y) and Proforma EBITDA of $3.5B (-20% y/y). Iron ore fines realized prices dropped 10% y/y to $85.1/t, while copper realized prices jumped 56% y/y to $15,314/t. Attributable net income fell 53% y/y to $1.255B. All 2026 production guidance ranges were reaffirmed, with copper and nickel trending toward the upper half.
- Proforma EBITDA of $3.5B, down 20% y/y and 14% q/q, driven by lower iron ore fines realized prices and BRL appreciation.
- Iron ore fines realized price fell to $85.1/t, down 10% y/y and 10% q/q, reflecting lower reference prices and CFR adjustments.
- Attributable net income dropped 53% y/y to $1.255B; proforma net income fell 54% y/y to $1.255B.
- Copper realized price surged 56% y/y to $15,314/t, with Salobo posting record Q3 production of 57.6 kt.
- Capex of $1.3B was flat y/y; full-year capex expected at the lower end of $5.4-5.7B guidance.
Extended-hours trading shows VALE at $11.11, down 0.63% from the regular close of $11.18 and down 0.45% from the filing-time price of $11.16 — a modest negative reaction consistent with the 20% EBITDA decline and 53% net income drop.
The 20% EBITDA drop exposes Vale's vulnerability to iron ore price weakness even as copper operations hit records — a divergence that challenges the diversification thesis.
Vale's 56% y/y copper realized price gain mirrors the broader copper bull market (LME +44% y/y), but iron ore remains the dominant earnings driver and the 10% realized price decline there is the overriding profit headwind.
BRL appreciation and higher bunker fuel prices pressured iron ore costs, with C1 cash cost rising 12% y/y to $23.1/t and all-in costs up 21% y/y to $60.4/t. Serra Norte production fell 31% y/y due to operational constraints near cave-related exclusion zones.