$UPST · Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Upstart reported Q3 2026 results with total revenue of $370.5M (+34% YoY), GAAP net income of $36.6M ($0.33 diluted EPS), and record Contribution Profit of $218M. Originations surged 44% YoY to $4.1B across 574,089 loans. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for ~$1.32B in revenue from fees and ~$260M in Adjusted EBITDA.
- Revenue from fees hit a record $364M, up 41% YoY, with total revenue of $370.5M (+34% YoY).
- Contribution Profit reached an all-time high of $218M, up 48% YoY, with Contribution Margin expanding to 60% from 57%.
- Secured products (Auto/Home) reached positive Contribution Margin of 17%, one quarter ahead of target, vs. negative 179% in Q3 2025.
- CEO Paul Gu warned: 'Macro is putting pressure on our near-term outlook' despite record operating metrics.
- Full-year 2026 guidance: Revenue From Fees of ~$1.32B, Total Revenue of ~$1.35B, Adjusted EBITDA of ~$260M (19% margin).
Extended-hours trading shows UPST at $20.30, down 11.82% from the filing-time price of $23.02 and down 4.74% from the regular close of $21.31. The sharp selloff reflects the macro-driven caution in the outlook overshadowing record origination and contribution profit numbers.
Record operating metrics collided with a macro-driven cautious outlook, triggering an 11.8% after-hours drop — a classic growth-stock tension between execution and forward expectations.
Upstart's AI-driven lending marketplace continues scaling originations (+44% YoY to $4.1B) but remains highly sensitive to interest-rate and credit-cycle dynamics. The secured-product turnaround to positive contribution margin is a milestone for diversification beyond unsecured personal loans.
CEO explicitly cited macro pressure on the near-term outlook. The fair value and other adjustments line swung to a $37.2M loss in Q3 (vs. $29.8M loss YoY), reflecting ongoing balance-sheet loan exposure. Interest expense nearly doubled YoY to $12.9M as funding costs rise.