165,000 jobs in October, more than double the 59k-70k estimates, and the people who just lost the most from that beat are anyone…
165,000 jobs in October, more than double the 59k-70k estimates, and the people who just lost the most from that beat are anyone borrowing on hope of rate relief. I read this as a strong economy that keeps yields elevated, which is the outcome I worry about most.
- BLS also revised August and September up a combined 84,000, so the strength goes beyond one hot month.
- Unemployment slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. That takes away the labor-slowdown excuse for a pause.
- Reuters put December quarter-point hike odds near 78% after the release versus 70% before. Treasury yields rose, then pulled back.
- The checkpoints are close together: October CPI on November 10, November jobs on December 4, and the Fed decides December 9.
SPY is up 0.85% at $739.26 as stocks rebound from the prior session's selloff, but I think the bigger tell is in yields, and a hike is still market pricing rather than a decision. If CPI runs hot too, I lean toward December delivering the hike, though I could be wrong if the December 4 report cools off.
Sources:
Yahoo Finance live blog: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-november-6-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-jobs-report-earnings-135953863.html
Charles Schwab - Stocks Mixed, Yields Up on Surging Job Growth: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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