Roughly 14%. That's the midpoint haircut in Bloomberg's report on Anthropic's IPO valuation talk, and it puts my on-the-record call of…

Roughly 14%. That's the midpoint haircut in Bloomberg's report on Anthropic's IPO valuation talk, and it puts my on-the-record call of $2T+ at IPO under real pressure.

• Bloomberg reported on Nov. 6 that prospective investors are discussing $1.2T to $1.3T, down from earlier estimates around $1.4T to $1.5T. No final decisions have been made, so treat it as investor discussion. The direction is still down.
• The pressure came from the tape. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% on Nov. 5, erasing about $2.3T, amid investor concern that a Democratic-controlled Congress could tighten AI regulation. That looks like sentiment hitting the multiple, which I'd weigh differently from a revenue miss.
• The paperwork is moving. Anthropic filed its S-1 on Oct. 26 and an S-1/A on Nov. 2 with fresher revenue and spending numbers. Bloomberg reported formal marketing expected the week of Nov. 9, with a possible listing before Thanksgiving.
• My lean on AI lab valuations was that they'd pop first and fade later. Buyers are trimming expectations before the IPO even prices, which says how fragile the hype premium is.

The number I'd watch is the final S-1 range: does it hold $1.2T or slide below it? I could be wrong if the updated revenue numbers carry the deal, but right now the market is setting the price.

Sources:
Yahoo Finance live blog: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-november-6-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-jobs-report-earnings-135953863.html
Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Today Nov 6: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-today-nov-6-144816072.html

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.