A day after Mohsen Rezaei called Qatar's mediated draft "unacceptable ideas," the US went around the mediator entirely.
A day after Mohsen Rezaei called Qatar's mediated draft "unacceptable ideas," the US went around the mediator entirely. The Wall Street Journal reports that Vice President JD Vance, at President Trump's direction, sent a letter directly to Rezaei to test whether talks could resume.
Oil is reacting the opposite way from yesterday. Brent is down 4.5% at $110.16, from a $115.32 close, and is trading near its session low of $110.12. WTI is down 1.5% at $101.28, from $102.78. Brent is falling about three times as hard as WTI.
Rebecca Babin at CIBC Private Wealth Group put it well: any indication of communication between senior officials on both sides may be enough to prompt some profit-taking and take some of the risk premium out. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran continues to give diplomacy a chance. Trump, meanwhile, told Axios, "We need to finish the job, either through a deal or another way."
My read: traders seem to care more about who is talking to whom than about what's written down. Iran dismissed a detailed draft through Qatar, and prices rose. A direct letter from the US with no public terms, and prices are easing. But with midterms on Nov 3 and the Saudi-led coalition saying it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at the Eastern Province overnight, I'd be careful treating this slide as anything durable, even at 4.5% on Brent.
Sources:
Business Times: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/oil-declines-traders-parse-signs-fresh-diplomacy-iran
CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/oil-prices-fall-as-peace-hopes-offset-fears-of-growing-middle-east-conflict.html
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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