After weeks of Epic Fury threats and Hormuz warnings, there's finally a written peace draft in play, though Tehran is already pushing…
After weeks of Epic Fury threats and Hormuz warnings, there's finally a written peace draft in play, though Tehran is already pushing back on it. Qatari mediators presented Iran with a deal to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, built around seven days of daily confidence-building steps for both sides, according to an official briefed on the negotiations who spoke to Reuters.
That official said Tehran might respond by the end of this week. A senior Iranian official then told Reuters that Qatar's proposals were unacceptable ideas, not an offer, and that Iran would show no flexibility on the nuclear issue.
The signals pull in different directions. Iran's Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei held de-escalation talks Monday with representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, then met Khamenei on Tuesday. Iranian state media said Khamenei stressed pursuing Iran's own interests and keeping its conditions for ending the war.
Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed a new ballistic missile hit on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery complex, which has 550,000 b/d of capacity. Saudi authorities confirmed missile interceptions in the region but not a hit on the refinery. A fire was reported near the complex and contained, and any effect on operations is unclear.
Oil is bid again this morning. Brent is up $1.31 (1.2%) at $115.19 after touching $116.34, and US crude is up $1.74 (1.7%) at $101.64 after reaching $102.24.
The ING comment is the one I keep coming back to. ING says a US-Iran agreement may not be needed for prices to pull back, and that the risk premium could start eroding if the market gets past the Nov 3 midterms without renewed strikes on Iran. That tells me traders are watching the calendar more closely than the draft. I'd love to be wrong, but I'm not expecting a clean yes from Tehran by Friday.
Sources:
Reuters via Dawn: https://www.dawn.com/news/2040336/oil-prices-fall-2-on-peace-hopes
Engine Online: https://www.engine.online/news/brent-inches-lower-as-qatar-presents-iran-with-new-peace-deal-8354
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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