Booking Holdings ($BKNG): buy now, add down to $135, long term

$BKNG: I think this is a buy right here.

15% below its 200-day
17x earnings vs a ~40x 5-yr avg
$9.5B of free cash flow in a year

I think AI agents need its hotels and payments more than it needs them.

Would you buy Booking at $152?

Not financial advice

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Bear case: Expedia teamed up with Meta's Muse AI agent on Sep 22 so people can book trips inside the assistant. Booking has no matching deal yet and the stock fell about 4% to 5% the next day. An EU court also upheld the block on its ETraveli flights deal.

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Chart + wave read: I read the drop from the $234 top in July 2025 as an A-B-C. A bottomed at $150 in May, B bounced to $217 in August and C is at $152 now. That's the 78.6% retrace of the 2024-25 run ($150) and C = A projects $134. The 50 and 200-day are rolling over near $177.

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The business: a 34.5% operating margin, revenue up 12.9% over the last year and 8.1% last quarter. Free cash flow was $9.5B, about an 8% yield at this price. Net debt is only about 0.3x EBITDA. Q3 results come Nov 3 after the close.

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My plan: I'd start a position here and add down to $135, where the 78.6% retrace, the C = A target and the early 2024 base line up. Earnings could hand me a better price, so I'd buy in pieces. A weekly close below $127, the Aug 2024 low, means I'm wrong. Multi-year hold.

Sources: Booking Holdings IR: Q3 2026 results on Nov 3 · StockAnalysis: BKNG stats, earnings date Nov 3 · MarketBeat: BKNG Q3 2026 earnings date · Investing.com: Booking slides on Expedia and Meta Muse deal · TIKR: BKNG drops as Expedia partners with Meta's Muse · CNBC: Booking seen as AI victim, data suggests otherwise

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.