$DECK daily pick: sell Dec 18 $75 put (buy-side)

$DECK: I'm selling the Dec 18 $75 put and getting paid to wait on the @hoka and @UGG owner.

As of Friday's close ($81.09, markets are closed today):
19% below the 200-day and 34% off the February high
Credit $1.90 for ~2.5% in 54 days (~17% annualized)
Breakeven $73.10, about 10% below Friday
About 10.5x this fiscal year's EPS estimate with net cash and a 10% free cash flow yield

I think the sales cut is mostly priced in because Deckers still raised EPS guidance to $7.80 to $7.95 and Hoka grew 6.8% last quarter. If I get assigned I'm fine owning it near $73.

Would you sell puts on Deckers here or wait for Hoka growth to bottom first?

Not financial advice

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Why a put and not shares? Deckers beat on EPS but cut its full year sales outlook to $5.70B to $5.73B and the stock fell 5% Friday back toward its September lows. I'd rather not catch it mid drop so I'll collect $190 and let it come to me under $75.

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Don't have $7.5k sitting in cash? Defined-risk version: sell the $75 put and buy the Dec 18 $65 put for about $1.25 credit. Max risk $875 and breakeven $73.75. You lose the full $875 if it's under $65 on Dec 18.

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Bear case: Hoka growth guidance went to high single digits from low double digits and about $0.52 of the EPS guide is a one-time tariff refund. US direct sales are soft with competitors discounting. A weekly close under the $77.20 Sep 30 low means the base broke.

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What I'd watch: holiday Ugg sell-through and whether Hoka growth stabilizes. Next earnings are Feb 4 so this put expires before the print. The Street target is about $101 with 27 Buys, 23 Holds and 7 Sells.

Sources: Investopedia: Deckers shares sink as Ugg, Hoka parent trims full-year sales forecast · Zacks: Deckers Q2 earnings beat on margins, revenues miss · X trending story: Deckers Q2 (Hoka +6.8%, Ugg +3.5%) · Wall St Engine on X: DECK Q2 results · FMP: DECK quote, history, estimates, ratios · Robinhood: DECK quote and Dec 18 $75 put

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.