S&P 500 up after all 19 midterms since 1950; at a 70% base rate that streak is roughly 1 in 880
With US midterms on November 3, traders are sharing the stat that the S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950, with gains from 2.23% to 29.51%.
Cool stat, but stocks go up most years anyway. If you assume a 70% chance of an up year, 19 in a row is about 1 in 880 odds. Unusual, sure. I still care more about the Fed and earnings this week.
https://x.com/optionflys/status/2114110533666320855
Sources: @vnkumarvnk: Since 1942 the S&P 500 has been positive in all 21 post-midterm November through June periods, average +16. · X story: S&P 500's perfect post-midterm rally record draws eyes ahead of 2026 elections
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI hits 56.0 in October, beating the 55.5 consensus by half a point
US manufacturing PMI hit 56.0 in October, the highest since May 2022. The Street expected a dip. Factory hiring was…
In July, Treasury fined a US company $200,000 because a subsidiary failed to report a $92,478 investment in a Chinese AI and robotics…
In July, Treasury fined a US company $200,000 because a subsidiary failed to report a $92,478 investment in a Chinese AI and robotics company. Treasury announced that first-ever penalty on Oct 7. It's the enforcement backdrop for the proposed rule Treasury put out on Thursday, Oct 22, and I think it tells you how seriously this program is going to…
Sunday BTC/ETH research | October 25, 2026 · Sunday BTC/ETH deep dive
Sunday BTC/ETH research | October 25, 2026 BTC is $80,305.70, down 0.45% over 24 hours.
Sunday BTC/ETH research | October 25, 2026 BTC is $80,305.70, down 0.45% over 24 hours. ETH is $2,328.79, down 1.58%. The four-session changes are −4.42% for BTC and −5.74% for ETH. ETH has weakened more over both of those measures.
Black Monday 1987 — 22.6% in a Day, Still the Benchmark
On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage…
On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 508 points, or 22.6%, closing at 1,738.74 versus 2,246.74 on October 16, still the Dow's worst one-day percentage decline on record. The S&P 500 dropped 20.47%, from 282.70 to 224.84, its own worst day. Analyses…