Free · Substack Oct 26, 2026 · 2 min read

End-of-day recap

Lula's runoff win sparked a Brazil selloff, with XP Inc falling 48.36% to $15.71 as markets headed toward the Fed decision.

End-of-day recap
End-of-Day Market Recap · EOD Market Recap, Oct 26, 2026 · Mon, Oct 26

Brazil's runoff result drove the session's largest single-stock move. A natural gas deal and tech gains set the pace elsewhere as markets headed toward Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision.

XP Inc fell 48.36% to $15.71, the session's biggest single-stock move. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Sunday's runoff with 51.8% over Flavio Bolsonaro, a result markets had not priced in.

The Brazil rout spread: Nu Holdings fell 16.95%, StoneCo 27.44%, Itau Unibanco 20.37%, Ultrapar 15.25%, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF 19.82%. Investors priced in a weaker real and higher-for-longer rates given Lula's spending and debt-relief plans, plus US tariff tension.

Range Resources rose 17.68% to $53.57, an 11-year high. EQT agreed to buy it in a $13 billion all-stock deal, joining two Appalachian Basin producers to serve rising LNG-export and power-generation demand.

The S&P 500 gained 0.70% to 7,677.33 and the Nasdaq rose 0.82% to 26,169.38. Anthropic's IPO filing lifted AI and tech sentiment ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision and Big Tech earnings.

Bernstein SocGen raised its Bloom Energy target to $306 against a posted level of $207.77. Analyst Sunaina Ocalan cited a strong beat and raise quarter in the note reported by StreetInsider.

Deutsche Bank raised its Palantir target to $225 from $200, with a posted level of $198.62. TheFly reported analyst Brad Zelnick's note as the basis for the target change.

Tesla rose 5.21% to $391.62. Barclays analyst Dan Levy upgraded shares to Overweight with a $450 target after Tesla and SpaceX formed independent merger committees, fueling takeover-premium speculation.

Corebridge Financial was the subject of a Form 4 purchase filed today. Nippon Life Insurance Co, a 10 percent owner, bought 246,440 shares at $35.15 for $8.66 million on Oct 22.

Tesla led options trading with 3,443,283 contracts; NVIDIA followed with 3,162,339. Tesla's Oct 26 392.50 put and 395 put each traded at more than 1,000 times open interest, showing unusually heavy short-dated hedging into the rally.

Gerdau fell 6.9% after hours to $4.75 from a $5.10 close. Q3 EPS of $0.15 missed the $0.18 estimate, while sales of $3.636 billion beat the $3.59 billion estimate.

Loop Capital initiated Trimble at Buy with a $76 price target versus a posted level of $63.37. Analyst Mark Schappel issued the initiation note reported by TheFly.

NVIDIA rose 2.39% to $216.00 and Micron gained 2.98% to $903.70 as Technology led all 11 sectors, up 1.69%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 2.8% on Anthropic-IPO-fueled AI optimism ahead of Big Tech earnings.

The session paired a Brazil selloff with gains in US natural gas and technology shares.

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.

Originally published on the Position Tracker Substack. Read on Substack ↗

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