$INTC stock call: Not yet, buy zone $41 to $45

$INTC: Not yet. I think it gets cheaper and I'd buy around $45.

30% below its 200-day after its worst day since the 1970s
Q4 guide of $15B to $16B vs $17.1B expected
Still about 33x 2027 earnings

Not financial advice

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The bear case is the guide. Q4 revenue of $15B to $16B vs $17.1B expected and adjusted EPS of $0.25 vs $0.43. Gross margin drops to 38% from 44.1%. The CFO sees PCs weak through at least the first half of 2027 and the Israel fab blast costs about $600M of revenue.

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The chart: I count 5 waves up from the $17.67 Apr 2025 low to the $142.35 June top. The drop since is an A-B-C. A ended at $81.79, B bounced to $127.44 and C just sliced through the 61.8% retrace at $65. The 78.6% retrace is $44.35 and the wave 4 low is $40.63. That's my zone.

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The business is better than the stock says. Q3 revenue grew 21% to $16.5B. Data center revenue jumped 78% to $7.3B, the best growth in 15 years. Foundry revenue rose 58%. Intel holds $54.0B of cash and investments vs $50.1B of debt.

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My plan: no buy at $60. I'd start near $45, add near $41 and hold for years. A weekly close below $35 means my wave count is wrong and I step back. If it reclaims the 200-day near $87 first I'll miss it and that's fine.

Sources: Intel Q3 2026 financial results (Intel IR) · CNBC: Intel Q3 2026 earnings report · CNBC: Intel falls 29%, worst day since the 1970s · Ctech (Reuters): Intel plunges as Israel factory blast compounds weak outlook · Investing.com: Why is Intel stock sliding today (Nov 2) · Investing.com via Yahoo: Intel plunges on weak Q4 forecast

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.