$IREN stock call: Not yet, buy zone $25 to $29

$IREN: not yet. I'd buy at $25 to $29, not $34.

55% off the $76.87 high
24% below the 200-day
$702.6M net loss in FY26

I think it retests the July low first because the Sep bounce failed at $49 and the cash burn means more dilution.

Not financial advice

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Bear case: SemiAnalysis called IREN's Prince George and Mackenzie sites in B.C. the worst in the industry last week, citing multi-day outages and storage failures. The report naming Anthropic as its mystery AI customer is unconfirmed by both companies. Debt was $7.84B at June 30.

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Chart + wave read: I count $5.13 in Apr 2025 to $76.87 in Nov 2025 as 5 waves up. Since then it's a W-X-Y correction: W to $30.76, X to $70.71, a to $28.93 in July and b stalled at $49.37. c is now underway. If c is 0.618 of a it lands near $23.55, so $25 to $29 is my zone.

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The bull case is real. FY26 revenue was $707M (up 41%) and IREN has $4B of contracted ARR for 2026 capacity. Microsoft signed a 5-year $9.7B deal for 200 MW at Childress, Texas and the first of 4 halls is delivered. Consensus still sees a loss in FY27 though.

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My plan: no buying at $34. I'd start small near $29 and add near $25 if Horizons 2 to 4 deliver in Q4 and the B.C. complaints get answered. A close below $23.50 means I wait. A close back above the 200-day near $46 would also change my mind.

Sources: FMP: $IREN quote, 50/200-day, price history, income, balance sheet, cash flow and estimates (Oct 13, 2026) · IREN FY26 results (SEC exhibit): $4B contracted ARR, Horizon 1 delivered to Microsoft, Horizons 2-4 Q4 2026 · GlobeNewswire: IREN Reports FY26 Results (Aug 27, 2026) · IREN: $9.7B five-year Microsoft agreement, 200MW at Childress, Texas · Investing.com: SemiAnalysis flags B.C. site outages, FY26 net loss $702.6M, $7.84B debt · Startup Fortune: SemiAnalysis report, FY26 revenue $707M up 41%, Microsoft deal

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.