$NBIS stock call: Not yet, buy zone $90 to $105
$NBIS: Not yet. I'd buy between $90 and $105.
57% off the June high and 28% below its 200-day
Q2 revenue up 454% with $3.0B ARR
Still burning cash as Microsoft tightens oversight
I think it falls further. The correction from the June top is not finished.
Not financial advice
The bear case is Microsoft and politics. Bloomberg reports Microsoft is tightening oversight of Nebius data-center projects tied to a $17.4B agreement after construction delays and a roughly $5B AI spend cut. Texas electing a governor who campaigned on a data-center moratorium hit the whole neocloud group even though Nebius has disclosed no Texas site. Citrini also publicly pushed the short thesis on peaking AI capex growth.
The chart: I count 5 waves up from the April 2025 low near $18 to the June 22 top at $299.86. The fall since is an A-B-C. A ended at $145.80 on July 29, B bounced to $280.83 on August 17 and C is still running. The 61.8% retrace of the whole advance is $122 and equal-wave C from the October high points near $101. The 78.6% fib is $77.
The business is growing fast. Q2 group revenue was $582.3M, up 454% year over year. AI cloud revenue was $575M and ARR hit $3.0B. AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin was 50%. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and raised year-end contracted power to 5 GW. GAAP still shows an operating loss and free cash flow is deeply negative as they build.
My plan: no buy at $129. I'd start near $105, add near $90 and hold for years. A weekly close below $73, under the February low, means my wave count is wrong and I step back. Q3 prints November 12. If it reclaims the 200-day near $178 first I'll miss it and I can live with that.
Sources: Nebius Q2 2026 financial results press release · Nebius Q2 2026 CEO shareholder letter (SEC) · Nebius: Q3 2026 results set for Nov 12 · Bloomberg via Investing/Reuters: Microsoft tightens neocloud oversight · StreetInsider: NBIS falls on Microsoft delays and spend cut · TIKR: Nebius -19% on Texas data-center vote
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.