October's jobs report came in at 165,000, more than double the 59,000 economists polled by Dow Jones expected.
October's jobs report came in at 165,000, more than double the 59,000 economists polled by Dow Jones expected. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent. On the surface that reads like a strong labor market, and the Fed is treating it that way.
Mary Daly told CNBC she expects the Fed "will have to tighten policy further." She isn't a voting member this year, but she typically echoes the majority. Alberto Musalem says inflation remains the top concern he hears from businesses, calling it "a regressive tax, a distortionary tax," and adds that AI investment will keep contributing to inflation for now.
Chairman Warsh says they're watching "the accumulation of data." Traders pushed the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting to about 80 percent, up from roughly 67 percent before the report.
The number I keep coming back to is wages. Average hourly pay rose 3.1 percent year-over-year while consumer prices rose 3.7 percent. People are getting hired, and their paychecks are still falling behind.
Meanwhile the bond market is recalibrating. The post-midterm rally stalled, and MUFG's George Goncalves says traders are applying "a new lens" heading into a mixed government that could see growth constrained by fiscal gridlock and less AI spending. If the Fed hikes into real-wage losses and a slower-growth setup, I'd want to know who absorbs that first.
Sources:
Korea Herald (Reuters): https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10929514
The Business Times: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/us-bonds-midterm-election-rally-skids-halt-after-strong-jobs-data
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$ASML daily pick: buy a starter after the post-midterm chip selloff, add $1,250 to $1,360
$ASML: I'm buying a starter in @ASMLcompany after the post-midterm chip selloff. Friday close ($1,424.75): 11% under the 200-day 29% off the June 30 high About 22x 2027 EPS estimates Q4 sales guide €14.2B to €15.2B vs €11.7B in Q3
$ROK daily pick: sell Dec 18 $350 put (buy-side) after the tariff-refund sales miss
$ROK: I'm selling the Dec 18 $350 put on @ROKAutomation after a sales miss that was mostly a tariff refund to customers. As of Friday's close ($375.86, markets closed for the weekend): 12% under the 200-day About 25x the $15 fiscal 2027 EPS guide midpoint $5.20 credit, breakeven $344.80 (under the 52-week low) About 1.5% in 40 days (~13.6% annualized)
The 2008 Financial Crisis — Lehman, 18 Years Later
Citi remains below its pre-crisis share price despite the recovery in stocks and jobs, highlighting the crisis’s uneven legacy.
On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, about $639 billion in assets, gone almost overnight. On October 3, 2008, the $700 billion bank bailout was signed into law, and on November 25 the Fed announced its initial large-scale asset purchase program,…
Rate-Sensitive Sectors Fall Together at 4.86% Yield
Rate-sensitive sectors fell as yields rose in the latest session, while technology led gains as capital rotated toward growth.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.86% on November 6, down 12bps from 4.98% on October 29. The 2-year eased 10bps to 4.51%, while the 30-year slipped only 6bps to 5.26%. The long end is lagging the rally, leaving the 2s30s spread at…