$RKLB stock call: Not yet, buy zone $38 to $44

$RKLB: not yet. I'd buy at $38 to $44, not $53.

65% off the $151 high
35% below the 200-day
Still losing money

I think wave C isn't done because Neutron just slipped to 2027 and that pushes profits further out.

Not financial advice

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Bear case: Rocket Lab found air pockets between carbon-fiber layers in a Neutron propellant dome, so the first launch moved to 2027 from a Q4 2026 target. Q3 non-GAAP gross margin guidance is 35% to 37% vs 41.5% in Q2. Management expects negative free cash flow to stay elevated in Q3. Citizens cut its target to $90 and the stock is down 4.9% today at $52.57.

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Chart + wave read: I count $14.71 in Apr 2025 to $151 in May 2026 as 5 waves up. The drop since is an ABC: A to $58.20 in July, B to $86.83 in August and C has broken the A low, tagging $49.69 intraday this week. The 78.6% retrace is $43.88 and the Nov 2025 low is $37.57. That's my zone.

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The bull case is real. Q2 revenue was a record $234M, up 62%, with a record $2.36B backlog. Q3 guidance is $250M to $265M. Rocket Lab also sold $1.94B of new stock, about 29.3M shares, to fund the Iridium deal, so the share count grew.

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My plan: no buying at $53. I'd start small near $44 and add near $38 if Q3 shows margins recovering and Neutron gets a firm launch date. A close below $37.50 means I wait. A close back above the 200-day near $81 would also change my mind.

Sources: Yahoo Finance: Rocket Lab stock tumbles as first Neutron launch slips to 2027 (Oct 15, 2026) · Reuters via US News: Rocket Lab pushes Neutron debut flight to 2027 (Oct 14, 2026) · GuruFocus: air pockets in Neutron forward propellant dome, launch date after testing · Rocket Lab Q2 2026 results (SEC Ex. 99.1): $234M revenue, $2.36B backlog, Q3 guide · Reuters: Q2 revenue $234M, Q3 gross margin guide 29% to 31% (Aug 10, 2026) · Via Satellite: Q2 GAAP gross margin 36.1%, free cash flow -$110.1M

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.