$SNDK stock call: Not yet, buy zone $1,070 to $1,190

$SNDK: not yet. I'd buy at $1,070 to $1,190.

42% off the June high
85% gross margins at a memory peak
6x forward earnings looks cheap. That's the trap

I think wave C isn't done because peak margins don't last.

Would you buy memory at 6x peak earnings?

Not financial advice

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Bear case: Sandisk fell 18% last week after China's CXMT said it will ship denser server DRAM by year-end. Sandisk makes NAND, not DRAM, but the real risk is price. Two-thirds of last quarter's growth came from higher prices. Gross margin went from 26% to 85% in a year.

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Chart + wave read: I count $27.89 in Apr 2025 to $2,354 in June as 5 waves up. The drop since is an ABC: A hit $998 in July, B bounced to $1,909 in September and C is under way. C at 0.618x A is $1,071 and the 50% retrace of the whole run is $1,191. That's my zone.

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The business is on fire. Q4 revenue was $8.97B, up 51% in one quarter. The Q1 guide is $10.3B to $10.8B with EPS of $44 to $46. Eight customers signed long-term deals with floor pricing and it added a $14B buyback. It reports Oct 29.

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My plan: no buying at $1,375. I'd start small near $1,190 and add near $1,070 if Oct 29 keeps margins above 83% and NAND prices hold. A weekly close below the July low at $998 means I wait. A close back above the 50-day near $1,600 would also change my mind.

Sources: Sandisk IR: fiscal Q4 2026 results (Aug 5, 2026): $8.97B revenue, 84.6% GM, $14B buyback, Q1 guide · Investing.com: Q4 2026 call transcript, Q1 guide $10.3B to $10.8B, EPS $44 to $46, bits on allocation past 2027 · Yahoo Finance: Sandisk fell 18% last week on CXMT DRAM scare, ~6x NTM earnings, reports Oct 29 (Oct 19, 2026) · CNBC: memory stocks slide as CXMT reports progress on denser chip structure (Oct 13, 2026) · FX Leaders: SNDK closed $1,299.30 Friday, ~45% below $2,354.39 high, CXMT 4F2 DRAM by end of 2026 (Oct 19, 2026) · Investing.com: why SanDisk is sliding, CPI plus CXMT, fiscal Q1 results due Oct 29 (Oct 16, 2026)

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.