T-Mobile US ($TMUS): buy in pieces $144 to $160, long term
$TMUS: I think this is a buy after the SpaceX scare.
16% below its 200-day
About 11x 2027 earnings estimates
$18.7B+ of free cash flow guided for 2026
The market is pricing a 2030 problem into a 2026 cash machine.
Not financial advice
The bear case is real. SpaceX agreed to buy $8B of 800 MHz spectrum and is in talks for at least 80,000 cell sites to build a fourth carrier. Account churn rose to 1.09% from 0.97% and Q3 account adds fell to 274K from 396K a year ago.
The chart: I read the fall from the $276 top in March 2025 as an A-B-C correction. A hit $194 in December, B bounced to $225 in February and C bottomed at $143.75 on Oct 28. C is about as long as A and the low sits on the 61.8% retrace of the 2020 to 2025 run.
The business: Q3 EPS of $3.22 beat the $2.89 estimate. Postpaid service revenue grew 9%, Core Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% and management raised the 2026 free cash flow guide to $18.7B to $18.8B. They returned $3.5B to shareholders in Q3 alone.
My plan: I'm buying in pieces between $144 and $160 and holding for years. A weekly close below $135 means I'm wrong. SpaceX still needs towers, approvals and years of capex to match a network T-Mobile already runs. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade.
Sources: T-Mobile Q3 2026 results press release · T-Mobile Q3 2026 investor factbook (SEC exhibit 99.2) · Motley Fool: TMUS Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · MarketWatch: T-Mobile 3Q profit and revenue rise on postpaid growth · Reuters via Investing.com: T-Mobile raises annual FCF forecast · Yahoo Finance: TMUS falls as SpaceX spectrum deal raises competition concerns
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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