$VRT stock call: Not yet, buy zone $160 to $178
$VRT: Not yet. I'd buy Vertiv between $160 and $178.
Down 13% today and 24% below its 200-day
Q3 sales up 61% with orders more than doubling
Still about 21x 2027 earnings
I think it falls further because the correction from the May top is not finished.
Not financial advice
The bear case is politics. Democrats won Congress and the Texas governor's race. The governor-elect campaigned on a moratorium on new data centers and Wells Fargo estimates about 27% of planned US data center capacity is in Texas. Vertiv also stopped disclosing orders.
The chart: I count 5 waves up from the $53.60 low in April 2025 to the $379.94 top on May 14. The fall since is an A-B-C. A ended at $220.92 in July, B bounced to $300.30 in August and C is still running. The 61.8% retrace of the whole run is $178 and the wave 4 low is $147.82.
The business is strong. Q3 net sales rose 61% to $4.31B and organic orders more than doubled. Adjusted operating margin rose 290 basis points to 25.2%. Management raised the 2026 adjusted EPS guide to $7.15 and the free cash flow guide to $2.7B. The balance sheet is net cash.
My plan: no buy at $205. I'd start near $178, add near $160 and hold for years. A weekly close below $140 means my wave count is wrong and I step back. If it reclaims the 200-day near $271 first I'll miss it and I can live with that.
Sources: Vertiv Q3 2026 results (Vertiv IR) · Motley Fool: Vertiv Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · MarketBeat via Yahoo: What Vertiv said on its Q3 call · Reuters via Investing.com: Midterm results and data center opponents · MarketWatch: Data-center stocks down after Democrats win Congress · Tickeron: Why is Vertiv stock down today
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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