Waller set his own bar for a 50bp December hike in London on Nov 10, and October core CPI cleared it hours later.

Waller set his own bar for a 50bp December hike in London on Nov 10, and October core CPI cleared it hours later. I think the people most exposed are anyone holding stocks priced for a gentle Fed, because a half point is a much bigger swing than markets had been leaning on.

• Before the release, Waller said he'd back at least 25bp in December even if inflation improved, and that 50bp should be considered if core CPI rose 0.3% or more.
• BLS data: core rose 0.3% vs 0.2% expected, its third straight 0.3% print. Headline rose 0.4% vs 0.3% expected.
• SPY closed down 0.37% and QQQ down 0.68% on Nov 10. Pre-market Nov 11, SPY is up 0.96% and QQQ up 1.98%, which Reuters ties to AI optimism after CoreWeave's outlook. Treasuries are closed for Veterans Day.
• Reporting put half-point odds around 10 to 14% after the print. That looks low to me for a governor whose condition just got met.

The pre-market bounce reads like AI enthusiasm papering over an inflation problem, and with tariffs still in place I don't see how prices cool fast. I'm watching whether other FOMC voters echo Waller before December and whether yields keep climbing once bond trading reopens, though I could be wrong if the committee sticks with 25bp.

Sources:
The Edge Malaysia: https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/825230
Seoul Economic Daily: https://en.sedaily.com/world/2026/11/11/waller-floats-half-point-fed-hike-in-december-but-caution

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.