$ASTS stock call: Not yet, buy zone $36 to $43

$ASTS: not yet. I'd buy at $36 to $43, not $50.

63% off the $133.86 high
38% below the 200-day
$1.64B cash burn in 4 quarters
SpaceX is buying the 800 MHz band AST wanted

I think it gets cheaper first because wave C isn't done and the burn means dilution.

Not financial advice

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Bear case: SpaceX agreed to buy Grain's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum that AST had also pursued. The FCC also cleared SpaceX for 15,000 direct-to-cell satellites. AST is still burning cash with $3.02B of debt against $2.72B of cash including restricted.

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Chart + wave read: I count the $18.22 Apr 2025 low to the $133.86 May 2026 high as 5 waves up. The drop since is an ABC and C broke the Nov 2025 low at $49.31 today. The 78.6% retrace is $43 and the Sep 2025 low is $36.08. That's my zone.

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The bull case is real. Q2 revenue was $31.5M vs $1.2M a year ago, there's about $1.2B of contracted backlog and 2027 consensus is ~$690M. At ~$20B market cap though it's priced for 2028, not today.

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My plan: no buying at $50. I'd start small near $43 and add near $36 if Q3 (expected around Nov 9, not confirmed) shows launches on schedule. A close back above the 200-day near $81 would also change my mind.

Sources: FMP: $ASTS quote, 50/200-day, price history, financials and estimates (Oct 9, 2026) · AST SpaceMobile 10-Q for Q2 2026: cash, restricted cash, revenue, operating loss · AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results press release (EX-99.1) · StockTitan 10-Q summary: $3.02B debt principal, ~$1.2B remaining performance obligations · 24/7 Wall St: SpaceX deal for Grain's low-band spectrum AST had pursued · Benzinga: why ASTS is falling Friday (SpaceX Starlink Mobile competition)

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.