Hot Take Jul 20, 2026 · 2 min read

$BABA

$BABA

Alibaba shares rose 5.4% on Monday after the Qwen team previewed Qwen3.8-Max during the World AI Conference in Shanghai. This new flagship model features 2.4 trillion parameters and marks the first Qwen model above one trillion parameters to offer multimodal capabilities spanning text, images, video, and documents. Alibaba claims it is compatible with leading frontier models and second only to Anthropic's Fable 5, though that assessment comes entirely from the company itself.

What strikes me as kind of unusual is the complete absence of verification. The preview shipped with no benchmark scores, no model card, and no independent evaluation, relying solely on two social media posts and a paid preview endpoint priced at ten percent of standard rates. This stands in sharp contrast to May's Qwen3.7-Max launch, which included published benchmarks and strong independent rankings on LMArena where Fable 5 currently sits at number one.

The full open-weight version is slated for release later, but there is still no confirmed date, license details, or third-party testing timeline. I find it interesting that the market rewarded a flagship AI announcement lacking any standardized performance data with such immediate enthusiasm. Investors are currently valuing AI progress solely on corporate statements and skipping traditional evaluation metrics.

Personally, I'm in the same camp because I own several BABA LEAPs and have been using QWEN for my own AI work quite a bit. When I tested it against other models, it beat out most of them except for the very expensive ones from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.

Track your live portfolio alongside our daily institutional research

Connect your brokerage in 60 seconds and get full access to Position Tracker Substack research inside your dashboard.

Start your free trial →